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Food Safety Monitoring Indicators and Early Warning Level Setting Based on Time Series Analysis

Xian Liu

Xian Liu

School of Food Engineering, Harbin UniversityHarbin, China
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Liu, Xian
, 
Chun Bian

Chun Bian

School of Food Engineering, Harbin UniversityHarbin, China
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Bian, Chun
 et 
Yanfeng Qu

Yanfeng Qu

School of Food Engineering, Harbin UniversityHarbin, China
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Qu, Yanfeng
  
17 mars 2025
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Publié en ligne: 17 mars 2025
Reçu: 16 nov. 2024
Accepté: 14 févr. 2025
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/amns-2025-0297
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© 2025 Xian Liu et al., published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Figure 1.

The time sequence diagram of the sampling rate
The time sequence diagram of the sampling rate

Figure 2.

Model prediction comparison results
Model prediction comparison results

The weight of food safety detection indicators

Primary indicator Weight Secondary indicator Weight Absolute weight
A1 0.2583 B1 0.2264 0.0585
B2 0.6845 0.1768
B3 0.0891 0.0230
A2 0.6370 B4 0.0455 0.0290
B5 0.0959 0.0611
B6 0.4342 0.2766
B7 0.0529 0.0337
B8 0.2692 0.1715
B9 0.0627 0.0399
B10 0.0396 0.0252
A3 0.1047 B11 0.5339 0.0559
B12 0.3849 0.0403
B13 0.0812 0.0085

The contrast matrix of the first level index

A A1 A2 A3
A1 0.5 0 1
A2 1 0.5 1
A3 0 0 0.5

The judgment matrix of the first level index

A A1 A2 A3
A1 1 1/3 3
A2 3 1 5
A3 1/3 1/5 1

ARMA (2,1,1) model parameter

Term Symbol Coefficient Standard error z P 95% CI
Constant term c -0.001 0.002 -3.659 0.001 -0.003~-0.001
AR parameter α1 0.284 0.108 2.637 0.013 -0.003~-0.001
α2 0.051 0.119 0.414 0.697 -0.003~-0.001
MA parameter β1 -1.037 0.028 -32.523 0.001 -0.003~-0.001

White noise test results

Term Symbol Coefficient Standard error z P 95% CI
Constant term c -0.001 0.002 -3.659 0.001 -0.003~-0.001
AR parameter α1 0.284 0.108 2.637 0.013 -0.003~-0.001
α2 0.051 0.119 0.414 0.697 -0.003~-0.001
MA parameter β1 -1.037 0.028 -32.523 0.001 -0.003~-0.001
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Sciences de la vie, Sciences de la vie, autres, Mathématiques, Mathématiques appliquées, Mathématiques générales, Physique, Physique, autres
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