Research on Investment Measurement Model of Grid Infrastructure Projects Based on Improved Discrete Gray Forecasting
, , , y
17 mar 2025
Acerca de este artículo
Publicado en línea: 17 mar 2025
Recibido: 30 oct 2024
Aceptado: 09 feb 2025
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/amns-2025-0340
Palabras clave
© 2025 Zhiyong Chen et al., published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Figure 1.
Figure 2.
Figure 3.
Figure 4.
Model simulation and prediction results
| Year | Original Value | Ours | DGM (1,2) | DGM (1,N) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Analog Value | Mape/% | Analog Value | Mape/% | Analog Value | Mape/% | ||
| 2018 | 3.36 | 3.36 | 0 | 3.36 | 0 | 3.36 | 0 |
| 2019 | 4.4 | 4.36 | 0.98 | 4.25 | 13.58 | 4.42 | 3.45 |
| 2020 | 4.91 | 4.44 | 9.58 | 5.24 | 11.34 | 2.81 | 41.45 |
| 2021 | 5.3 | 4.86 | 4.56 | 6.55 | 14.58 | 3.47 | 38.1 |
| 2022 | 6.27 | 5.04 | 2.46 | 7.57 | 25.85 | 4.14 | 33.57 |
| 2023 | 7.29 | 6.49 | 12.01 | 9.15 | 16.57 | 5.23 | 34.38 |
| Mape/% | 0.45 | 7.82 | 37.51 | ||||
| Correlation degree | 0.9436 | 0.8755 | 0.6635 | ||||
Measuring relative error of model
| Time | Relative Error | |
|---|---|---|
| Multivariate Linear Regression | Ours | |
| 2023.1 | 1.95% | 0.55% |
| 2023.2 | 2.03% | 0.68% |
| 2023.3 | 2.14% | 0.79% |
| 2023.4 | 2.18% | 0.88% |
| 2023.5 | 2.24% | 0.93% |
| 2023.6 | 2.24% | 0.96% |
| 2023.7 | 2.25% | 0.99% |
| 2023.8 | 2.25% | 1.02% |
| 2023.9 | 2.23% | 1.03% |
| 2023.10 | 2.24% | 1.04% |
| 2023.11 | 2.22% | 1.06% |
| 2023.12 | 2.2% | 1.05% |