Research on Investment Measurement Model of Grid Infrastructure Projects Based on Improved Discrete Gray Forecasting
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17. März 2025
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Online veröffentlicht: 17. März 2025
Eingereicht: 30. Okt. 2024
Akzeptiert: 09. Feb. 2025
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/amns-2025-0340
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© 2025 Zhiyong Chen et al., published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Figure 1.
Figure 2.
Figure 3.
Figure 4.
Model simulation and prediction results
| Year | Original Value | Ours | DGM (1,2) | DGM (1,N) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Analog Value | Mape/% | Analog Value | Mape/% | Analog Value | Mape/% | ||
| 2018 | 3.36 | 3.36 | 0 | 3.36 | 0 | 3.36 | 0 |
| 2019 | 4.4 | 4.36 | 0.98 | 4.25 | 13.58 | 4.42 | 3.45 |
| 2020 | 4.91 | 4.44 | 9.58 | 5.24 | 11.34 | 2.81 | 41.45 |
| 2021 | 5.3 | 4.86 | 4.56 | 6.55 | 14.58 | 3.47 | 38.1 |
| 2022 | 6.27 | 5.04 | 2.46 | 7.57 | 25.85 | 4.14 | 33.57 |
| 2023 | 7.29 | 6.49 | 12.01 | 9.15 | 16.57 | 5.23 | 34.38 |
| Mape/% | 0.45 | 7.82 | 37.51 | ||||
| Correlation degree | 0.9436 | 0.8755 | 0.6635 | ||||
Measuring relative error of model
| Time | Relative Error | |
|---|---|---|
| Multivariate Linear Regression | Ours | |
| 2023.1 | 1.95% | 0.55% |
| 2023.2 | 2.03% | 0.68% |
| 2023.3 | 2.14% | 0.79% |
| 2023.4 | 2.18% | 0.88% |
| 2023.5 | 2.24% | 0.93% |
| 2023.6 | 2.24% | 0.96% |
| 2023.7 | 2.25% | 0.99% |
| 2023.8 | 2.25% | 1.02% |
| 2023.9 | 2.23% | 1.03% |
| 2023.10 | 2.24% | 1.04% |
| 2023.11 | 2.22% | 1.06% |
| 2023.12 | 2.2% | 1.05% |