Research on Investment Measurement Model of Grid Infrastructure Projects Based on Improved Discrete Gray Forecasting
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Mar 17, 2025
About this article
Published Online: Mar 17, 2025
Received: Oct 30, 2024
Accepted: Feb 09, 2025
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/amns-2025-0340
Keywords
© 2025 Zhiyong Chen et al., published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
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Model simulation and prediction results
| Year | Original Value | Ours | DGM (1,2) | DGM (1,N) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Analog Value | Mape/% | Analog Value | Mape/% | Analog Value | Mape/% | ||
| 2018 | 3.36 | 3.36 | 0 | 3.36 | 0 | 3.36 | 0 |
| 2019 | 4.4 | 4.36 | 0.98 | 4.25 | 13.58 | 4.42 | 3.45 |
| 2020 | 4.91 | 4.44 | 9.58 | 5.24 | 11.34 | 2.81 | 41.45 |
| 2021 | 5.3 | 4.86 | 4.56 | 6.55 | 14.58 | 3.47 | 38.1 |
| 2022 | 6.27 | 5.04 | 2.46 | 7.57 | 25.85 | 4.14 | 33.57 |
| 2023 | 7.29 | 6.49 | 12.01 | 9.15 | 16.57 | 5.23 | 34.38 |
| Mape/% | 0.45 | 7.82 | 37.51 | ||||
| Correlation degree | 0.9436 | 0.8755 | 0.6635 | ||||
Measuring relative error of model
| Time | Relative Error | |
|---|---|---|
| Multivariate Linear Regression | Ours | |
| 2023.1 | 1.95% | 0.55% |
| 2023.2 | 2.03% | 0.68% |
| 2023.3 | 2.14% | 0.79% |
| 2023.4 | 2.18% | 0.88% |
| 2023.5 | 2.24% | 0.93% |
| 2023.6 | 2.24% | 0.96% |
| 2023.7 | 2.25% | 0.99% |
| 2023.8 | 2.25% | 1.02% |
| 2023.9 | 2.23% | 1.03% |
| 2023.10 | 2.24% | 1.04% |
| 2023.11 | 2.22% | 1.06% |
| 2023.12 | 2.2% | 1.05% |