Research on the path and optimisation of sustainable regional economic development based on big data analysis

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Global self-correlation analysis

Year	Moran′s I	E(I)	Mean	Sd	P value	Z(I)
2012	0.141	-0.001	-0.094	0.223	0.164	1.044
2013	-0.007	-0.001	-0.092	0.236	0.339	0.365
2014	-0.053	-0.001	-0.085	0.229	0.402	0.158
2015	-0.054	-0.001	-0.083	0.233	0.404	0.129
2016	0.135	-0.001	-0.09	0.229	0.032	0.348
2017	-0.02	-0.001	-0.09	0.232	0.333	0.317
2018	0.13	-0.001	-0.093	0.235	0.175	0.938
2019	0.054	-0.001	-0.101	0.237	0.242	0.635
2020	0.145	-0.001	-0.106	0.239	0.156	1.053
2021	0.175	-0.001	-0.097	0.226	0.126	1.239

Regional economic sustainable development level evaluation index system

Title	Evaluation index	Symbol
Regional economic sustainability	GDP	Q1
	The added value of the first production	Q2
	Industrial added value	Q3
	The added value of the third industry	Q4
	The number of employees at the end of the year	Q5
	Total retail sales of consumer goods	Q6
	The actual use of foreign capital	Q7
	The balance of the year-end balance of urban and rural residents	Q8
	The whole club will invest in fixed assets	Q9
	Local budget internal income	Q10
	Expenditure within the general budget of local finances	Q11

The Moran scattered quadrant distribution in 11 regions of a province

Quadrant	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
First quadrant	2	2	2	2	1	2
Second quadrant	2	1	3	3	3	3
Third quadrant	5	6	3	4	4	4
Fourth quadrant	2	2	3	2	3	2

The fixed effect of panel data is analyzed

Variable	Model 1	Model 2	Model 3	Model 4	Model 5	Model 6
GDP	0.023 (1.64)					0.008 (1.89)
The added value of the first production	-0.001 (-0.34)					0.006 (0.44)
Industrial added value	-0.003 (-2.04)					0.004 (2.47)
The added value of the third industry		-0.006 (-0.18)				0.015 (0.54)
The number of employees at the end of the year		-0.035 (-0.88)				-0.026 (-0.39)
Total retail sales of consumer goods			0.008 (1.28)			0.008 (0.76)
The actual use of foreign capital			0.006 (2.25)			0.008 (2.28)
The balance of the year-end balance of urban and rural residents				0.005 (0.007)		-0.008 (-0.87)
The whole club will invest in fixed assets				0.004 (0.009)		-0.049 (-3.06)
Local budget internal income					-0.038 (-2.66)	-0.057 (0.077)
Expenditure within the general budget of local finances					0.097 (0.022)	0.066 (0.033)
_cons	0.174 (9.08)	0.158 (6.08)	0.115 (9.13)	0.139 (49.08)	0.104 (6.02)	0.15 (2.12)
R2	0.047	0.022	0.036	0.001	0.066	0.214
F	2.414	1.041	2.733	0.046	7.175	3.538

Robustness test results

Variable	Model 6	Model 7	Model 8
	Original model	Explain the variable lag issue	Replace the explanatory variable
GDP	0.018 (1.935)	0.016 (1.934)	0.019 (1.933)
The added value of the first production	0.006 (0.485)	0.005 (0.484)	0.007 (0.483)
Industrial added value	-0.016 (-2.538)	-0.017 (-2.537)	-0.018 (-2.536)
The added value of the third industry	0.015 (0.545)	0.016 (0.546)	0.014 (0.543)
The number of employees at the end of the year	0.008 (0.805)	0.009 (0.806)	0.007 (0.804)
Total retail sales of consumer goods	0.008 (2.335)	0.007 (2.334)	0.007 (2.334)
The actual use of foreign capital	-0.008 (-0.915)	-0.007 (-0.914)	-0.009 (-0.913)
The balance of the year-end balance of urban and rural residents	-0.049 (-3.06)	-0.048 (-3.05)	-0.047 (-3.07)
The whole club will invest in fixed assets	-0.045 (0.442)	-0.046 (0.443)	-0.044 (0.441)
Local budget internal income	0.237 (0.013)	0.236 (0.012)	0.238 (0.014)
Expenditure within the general budget of local finances	0.388 (0.007)	0.387 (0.006)	0.389 (0.008)
_cons	0.174 (9.08)	0.173 (9.07)	0.175 (9.09)
R2	0.214	0.213	0.215
F	3.569	3.568	3.570