Development of preschool education major in colleges and universities in the context of low fertility rate: current situation, dilemmas, and strategies to crack the problem
Data publikacji: 19 mar 2025
Otrzymano: 05 paź 2024
Przyjęty: 28 sty 2025
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/amns-2025-0399
Słowa kluczowe
© 2025 Yiping Ji et al., published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
China’s total fertility rate (TFR) has been declining due to economic, social, family and institutional factors such as income instability caused by economic fluctuations, heavy housing burdens, economic costs of raising children, changes in human capital, population mobility and urbanization, and intergenerational family support [1–2]. Total fertility rate (TFR) refers to the average number of children born to each woman of reproductive age in a certain country or region, and is an internationally recognized indicator of the fertility level of a certain country or region [3–4].
Population as the most basic and core element in social and economic development, its size and structure will have an important impact on the basic pattern of education development, low fertility rate is the basic trend of China’s population development now and in the future period of time, the decline in the number of births has already had a certain impact on the development of China’s pre-primary education [5–8].
The high-quality development of preschool education should not only realize the effective supply of educational resources, but also strengthen the investment in education, not only pay attention to the hygiene, safety and health care of young children, but also strengthen the construction of the curriculum, and give full play to the creativity and autonomy of young children, not only strengthen the construction of teachers, but also pay attention to the status of teachers, and boost the healthy development of the preschool education cause by the change in scale, the change in balance, the change in quality, and the change in teachers [9–10]. However, low fertility rate has deterred the process of high-quality development of preschool education. The inevitable result of low fertility rate on education is the decrease of newborn children, resulting in profound changes in structural elements such as class size, teacher-student ratio, and resource allocation, thus affecting the development quality of China’s preschool education [11–13].
Although the contradiction between the supply and demand of educational resources will be alleviated with the reduction of fertility rate, the uneven distribution of newborns will bring about difficulties in the allocation of educational resources. Secondly, with the reduction of the teacher-student ratio, the depth and frequency of teacher-student interactions have been increasing, and finally, in the context of low fertility rate, kindergarten operations have encountered a cold wave with the reduction of the number of newborns. Whether it is a first-tier city or a second- or third-tier city, kindergarten enrollment of children in the number and size of the trend of decline year by year [14–17].
Starting from the characteristics of fertility change in China, this paper summarizes the phenomenon of ultra-low fertility brought about by drastic and rapid changes. Meanwhile, under the background of low fertility rate, the development of preschool education is simultaneously faced with multiple dilemmas, such as the difficulty of resource allocation, the improvement of benchmarks of teacher quality, and the resistance of kindergarten operation. Through empirical data research, we analyzed the total fertility rate of OECD countries, the birth rate of Chinese population, and the number of kindergartens under the background of low fertility rates. From the aspects of teacher-student ratio and kindergarten class size, we analyze the opportunities for the development of preschool education, so as to analyze the dilemmas that preschool education is facing, and based on the dilemmas that China’s preschool education is facing, we put forward four cracking paths for the cultivation of talents specialized in preschool education in colleges and universities.
Compared with developed countries in the West, China’s demographic transition began slowly but was completed in a relatively short period of time: in the 1970s, China’s fertility level showed a significant decline, and by the 1990s, in just two decades, China had left the high-fertility stage and entered the low-fertility stage, having achieved a complete fertility transition. In developed countries, it took 100 years to complete the fertility transition. In contrast, China’s fertility change has been dramatic and rapid. The dramatic and rapid change in fertility has prevented China’s rapid population growth, but it has brought about a completely new demographic problem - the phenomenon of ultra-low fertility. [18]
The high-quality development of preschool education requires both the effective supply of educational resources and the strengthening of educational inputs, and attention to the hygiene, safety and health care of young children, as well as the strengthening of curricula to give full play to the creativity and autonomy of young children. It is necessary to strengthen teacher training and pay attention to the status of teachers, so as to boost the healthy development of pre-school education through changes in scale, balance, quality, and teachers. Yet, the low fertility rate has deterred the process of high-quality development of pre-primary education. The inevitable result of the low fertility rate on education is a decrease in the number of newborn children, resulting in profound changes in structural elements such as class size, teacher-student ratios, and resource allocation, thus affecting the quality of the development of China’s preschool education. According to media reports, China’s persistently low fertility rate has led to a sharp decline in the total number of school-age children.
Although the contradiction between the supply and demand of educational resources will be alleviated along with the reduction of the fertility rate, however, the ensuing difficulties in the allocation of educational resources caused by the uneven distribution of newborns [19].
An analysis of the distribution of data from different provinces and cities reveals relatively large differences in fertility rates between regions, and the resulting differences in the distribution of newborns will make the scientific allocation of educational resources more difficult. For example, the number of young children in remote mountainous areas is relatively small, and they are caught in the predicament of being “abolished” or “merged,” which results in fewer educational resources being allocated to them. In addition, despite the rapid development of China’s preschool education institutions and systems, there are still obvious gaps in the quality and scale of educational resources available to different groups, regions, and urban and rural areas. There is still a clear “Matthew effect” in preschool education resources. That is, some preschool institutions are able to obtain more and better quality preschool education resources by virtue of their own regional and resource advantages, but more regions are still unable to reach the average level in terms of staff training, financial support for education, and the supply of hardware resources.
Along with decreasing teacher-student ratios, the depth and frequency of teacher-student interactions have increased.2021 Supporting Meaningful Interactions in the Education and Care of Preschool Children analyzes and explores the impact of teacher literacy on the development of high quality preschool education, as well as its value to the “process quality” of preschools, and emphasizes the significance of teacher-student interactions for the development of high quality in education. It also emphasizes the significance of teacher-student interaction to the development of high quality education. Through theoretical research and practical analysis, some scholars have found that teacher-child interactions that are scientifically organized, rich in stimuli, responsive, and stable and warm can play a certain role in promoting young children’s cognitive, literacy, language and social development. It is true that the increase in teacher-student ratios has supported the high-quality development of preschool education in China, but the appropriate teacher-student ratios are not a necessary element of high-quality teacher-student interactions, but rather a benchmark for testing their professional qualities and abilities. The decrease in the number of students requires teachers to have strong feedback skills, interaction skills, “scientific guidance”, “targeted response” and “appropriate support” are the basic qualities of preschool workers in teacher-student interactions. Scientific guidance, targeted response, and appropriate support are all essential qualities for preschool educators to conduct teacher-student interactions. However, the quality of teacher-student interactions in China has not yet reached a high level of quality, and some teachers’ instructional support is relatively weak. As the teacher-student ratio continues to increase and deepen, early childhood teachers’ qualifications and abilities in this area are being tested and need to be improved through regular, systematic, long-term, and professional training.
The statistical bulletin on the development of education shows that China’s gross kindergarten enrolment rate has gradually increased from 62.53 per cent in 2010 to 89.34 per cent in 2022, an increase of nearly 30 per cent. However, the kindergarten enrollment rate mainly reflects the strength of China’s preschool education guarantee and the degree of popularization, and does not adequately reflect the changing trends and conditions of the size of young children. Under the perspective of low fertility rate, kindergarten operations also face a cold wave as the number of newborns decreases. Whether in first-tier cities or second- or third-tier cities, kindergarten enrollment has shown a year-on-year decline in number and size. In 2022, China has 89,200 registered preschools, a decrease of 5,610 from the previous year. The number of children enrolled in kindergartens was 46,272,300, a year-on-year decrease of 1,776,600. It can be seen that, despite a low birth rate, the size and number of children enrolled in kindergartens in China have increased operational pressure on preschool education institutions. Difficulty in enrollment is one of the basic problems faced by preschools. Compared to public kindergartens, the shortage of private kindergartens has led to a series of problems, such as overflow of resources, misalignment of planning, and over-sized teachers. In addition, according to media reports, the “wave of kindergarten closures” in China has intensified, with Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong and other regions experiencing varying degrees of closures, and even elementary school in some regions are experiencing a “student supply crisis,” which is seriously affecting the high quality development of China’s education industry. This has significantly impacted the high-quality development of China’s education program.
An overview of the global demographic situation shows that there are two main demographic phenomena that are spreading around the world, one of which is the problem of aging and the other is the problem of low fertility. In the long run, too low a fertility level will lead to a sharp decline in the total population and increase the risk and burden of population ageing, and therefore countries want to avoid or solve this demographic crisis [20]. Internationally, the main indicator used to determine the specific level of fertility is the total fertility rate (TFR). The total fertility rate (TFR) is the average number of children per woman of reproductive age in the country or region. Some scholars have conducted a systematic survey based on the phenomenon of low fertility in Europe and divided different levels of fertility in combination with the total fertility rate: the total fertility rate of 2.1 is the demarcation line for the replacement level of the population, below which the country or region is at the level of low fertility, while a value below 1.3 represents a very low level of fertility. Figure 1 shows the statistics based on the total fertility rate of OECD countries, and from the data published on the official website, it can be seen that the average total fertility rate of OECD countries in 2019 is 1.637. Among them, only two countries are above the replacement level of the population, namely, Israel (3.014) and Mexico (2.156), and the rest of them are in the low-fertility level, and the average fertility rates of Italy (1.354), Spain (Italy (1.354), Spain (1.248) and the Republic of Korea (0.992) are at the very low fertility level.
Statistics on the combined fertility rate of oecd countries in 2019
Note: Data from the oecd database oecd(2019).
Since 1992, the total fertility rate of China’s population has fallen below the replacement level for the first time, and has not risen to the replacement level of 2.1 in the past 30 years. Since the accuracy of previous population data is questionable, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has adjusted the total population and birth rate for 2011-2019 based on the results of the Seventh National Population Census (hereinafter referred to as the “Seventh Census”). Some scholars have estimated that China’s total fertility rate has fluctuated between 1.5 and 1.8 over the past decade.
In addition to the total fertility rate, the birth rate can also be used as an important reference indicator for measuring the overall fertility trend in China, and the data source for this indicator is more reliable and accurate. As can be seen from the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s birth rate in the past ten years has shown a fluctuating downward trend, Figure 2 shows the birth rate in China from 2011 to 2023, and after 2016, the decline amplitude has expanded significantly, and in 2020 the birth rate has fallen below 10 ‰, and the birth rate for the four years from 2020 to 2023 is 8.563 ‰, 9.156 ‰, 8.453 ‰, 8.123 ‰, and 8.123 ‰, respectively.
The birth rate of China from 2011-2023
Note: the data comes from the national bureau of statistics, the Chinese statistical yearbook, (2011-2020).
Figure 3 shows the total number of kindergartens in China from 2003 to 2023. The scale of kindergartens in China from 2003 to 2021 shows rapid growth, with the total number of kindergartens increasing from 116,480 in 2003 to 294,860 in 2021, an increase of 178,380 in 18 years, with a growth rate is 153.142%, with an average growth of nearly 10,000 kindergartens per year. After a longer period of growth, there is a decrease of 0.55 lakhs and 20.03 lakhs in 2022 and 2023 respectively.
The total number of kindergartens from 2003—2023
Figure 4 shows the number of children in the country from 2003 to 2023, meanwhile, the number of children in kindergartens in the country increased from 20.05 million in 2003 to 40.53 million in 2021, an increase of 20.48 million in 18 years, with a growth rate of 102.145%. After years of continuous growth, the number of children in kindergartens began to decline in 2021, decreasing by 5.7 million in 2021, 2.27 million in 2022, and 1.39 million in 2023 when compared to the previous year.
The number of children in the country from 2003—2023
Teacher-student ratio
Figure 5 shows the statistics of teacher-student ratio in preschool education from 2011 to 2020. Along with the wave of low fertility rate, the number of newborns in China has gradually declined, while the team of personnel engaged in the early childhood education industry has been expanding. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s preschool teacher-student ratio from 2011-2020 decreased from 25.172 in 2011 to 16.49 in 2020, and the decline has continued in recent years. The collision of two trends has contributed to a gradual decrease in the ratio of teachers to children in kindergarten education.
As can be seen from Figure 5, from both a national and a regional perspective, China’s preschool student-teacher ratio has shown a downward trend, with the western region showing the greatest decline (43.65%), the central region basically equal to the overall national trend, and the eastern region always below the national average. The decline in the student-teacher ratio in preschool education means that each teacher is responsible for teaching fewer students and is able to devote more energy to the development of individual students. It has been shown that there is a significant difference in the workload of early childhood teachers in terms of the number of children currently in their classes, and that the greater the number of children, the heavier the teacher’s workload. In other words, with the change in the teacher-child ratio brought about by the low birth rate, the overall work pressure of kindergarten teachers can be alleviated to a certain extent. The decline in the student-teacher ratio can not only adjust the pressure on teachers to organize activities, but also open up space for teachers’ professional development, thus optimizing the implementation of teachers’ teaching and learning tasks in a dual path.
Kindergarten class size
Figure 6 shows kindergarten class sizes in China from 2011 to 2020, with a steady trend of contraction in kindergarten class sizes in China as a whole and in all regions. Among them, kindergarten class sizes in the eastern region are slightly lower than the national average, with the difference between the two regions ranging from 0.416 to 1.196 over the 10-year period. The size of kindergarten classes in the central region is the smallest and continues to shrink, to 24.517 by 2020, which is closely related to the small population and low fertility rate, while the size of kindergarten classes in the western region is the largest but is gradually converging to the national average. While it is a basic fact that kindergarten class sizes are continuing to shrink in China, this does not mean that “large class sizes” have been eliminated. The coexistence of “large class sizes in towns” and “small class sizes in villages” at the pre-school level remains one of the bottlenecks constraining the balanced development and quality improvement of pre-school education in rural counties in the central and western regions.
2011-2020 pre-school education
Data source: Statistics and statistics of education, ministry of education of the People’s Republic of China.
Class size of kindergarten class from 2011-2020
Note: the data is based on the education statistics of the ministry of education of the People’s Republic of China.
According to the studies available, the total fertility rate (TFR) is calculated in the following way, which is more widely recognized in the academic world: TFR = 35 x the general fertility rate (GFR), with the constant 35 being the length of the childbearing period (50 - 15 = 35 years). The constant 35 is the length of the childbearing period (50 years - 15 years = 35 years), where the general fertility rate = the number of births in the same period in a given year / the number of women aged 15-49 years × 1000 per thousand. By following this method and accounting for it with the data from the China Census Yearbook-2020 released in February 2023, this study can present a more intuitive picture of the total fertility rate across China in 2020 in the form of a radar chart, and Figure 7 shows the total fertility rate in 2020 for each province in China.
As can be seen in Figure 7, the total fertility rate in 2020 fails to reach the level of 2.1 in most regions of China, and the total fertility rates in Beijing, Shanghai, and the three northeastern provinces are less than 1.0. In addition, according to the degree of dispersion of the data in the figure, there are large differences in the total fertility rate among regions of China, with only Guizhou’s fertility rate reaching the level of 2.168, and the fertility levels of only two provinces in China, Guizhou and Guangxi, above the level of 2.168. 2 or above. The uneven distribution of the newborn population will constrain the rational allocation of preschool education resources in many ways. For example, in some remote areas, due to the fact that the number of young children is too small, some schools have to fall into the situation of merging or even abolishing. This not only leads to a certain degree of wastage of educational resources, but also increases the time and economic costs of daily schooling for young children, and threatens their right and opportunity to receive pre-primary education.
The total fertility rate of the provinces in 2020
Note: Data from the national bureau of statistics, “Chinese mouth census yearbook” -2020.
According to the Kindergarten Regulations, “kindergarten-age children” are defined as “children between the ages of 3 and 6 years old,” and ignoring the error caused by the school-age system for calculating the age of school enrollment, it is assumed that children of the age of 2023 will be the “population born in 2018-2020”. In other words, it is assumed that children of school age in 2023 will be the “2018-2020 birth population”. The statistical bulletin on the development of education shows that in 2020, 2021 and 2022, there will be 48.18 million, 48.05 million and 46.28 million children in preschool education, while the number of births published by the National Bureau of Statistics in 2015-2019 will be 16.55 million, 18.83 million, 17.64 million, 15.23 million and 14.65 million, respectively, and the number of children in preschool education will be 16.55 million, 18.83 million, 17.64 million, 15.23 million and 14.65 million, respectively. The actual gross enrolment rates for 2020, 2021 and 2022 calculated using the “children in kindergarten/total population aged 3 to 5 of the National Bureau of Statistics” were 90.9 per cent, 92.9 per cent and 97.4 per cent, which were 5.7 per cent, 4.8 per cent and 7.7 per cent higher than the rates of 85.2 per cent, 88.1 per cent and 89.7 per cent published in the statistical bulletin. It can be seen that the traditional education bulletin data may have some statistical errors in the number of school-age children, leading to an underestimation of the enrollment rate. Since the baseline data of birth population used in this study is the caliber of the National Bureau of Statistics, and with the decrease of birth population, the size of children in kindergarten in 2022 has decreased significantly, it is assumed that the three-year gross enrollment rate of preschool education in China will remain at 100% from 2023 onwards, and that the development goal of “full universalization of preschool education” will be basically achieved by the modernization of China’s education in 2035, and then using the principle of “children in kindergarten = school-age children * gross enrollment rate” to estimate the size of children in kindergarten in the next 12 years.
Data from the China Education Statistical Yearbook show that although the urban concentration of the preschool population is significantly and positively correlated with the urbanization rate of the resident population, the two are not completely synchronized, so it is necessary to consider the two together when estimating the distribution of urban and rural children in kindergartens. According to the development law of urbanization in the world and the development trend that China’s urbanization process will continue to advance from 2023 to 2035, assuming that the growth rate of China’s pre-school education urban concentration slows down and gradually enters into the plateau period, and that the rate of reduction of county and township concentration remains unchanged, the indicators of the concentration of the population in pre-school education in cities and counties and townships in the next ten years are shown in Table 1. As shown in Table 1, the population concentration of preschool education gradually increases, and by 2035, the urban population concentration will be 55.748%. In contrast, the concentrations of county and rural populations show varying degrees of decrease until 2035, when they will be 32.658% and 12.374%, respectively.
2023-2023-2035 pre-school education population concentration (Metering unit/%)
| Year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| City | 45.654 | 46.451 | 47.896 | 48.685 | 49.518 | 50.426 | 51.486 |
| County town | 36.269 | 35.862 | 35.615 | 35.286 | 34.869 | 34.593 | 34.169 |
| Village | 18.664 | 17.896 | 17.896 | 16.615 | 15.789 | 14.596 | 14.596 |
| Year | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | / |
| City | 52.365 | 53.185 | 53.496 | 24.596 | 55.126 | 55.748 | |
| County town | 33.815 | 33.485 | 33.158 | 32.752 | 32.485 | 32.658 | |
| Village | 14.265 | 13.487 | 13.247 | 12.869 | 12.596 | 12.374 |
The Notice on Further Improving the Work of Classification Examination for Higher Vocational Colleges and Universities issued in 2021 has alleviated the problem of insufficient kindergarten teacher faculty in the early period. As a result, there is still a group of ungraduated and unemployed pre-school education majors. Against the background of the surplus of teachers caused by the lowering of the birth rate, we should reconstruct the pre-school education teacher expansion plan that meets the actual needs. For example, according to the trend of school-age population change, according to the kindergarten equipment requirements, enroll the appropriate amount of preschool education students. At the same time, we can further improve the enrollment method, set up more interviews, and actively discover the potential of the students, so as to avoid the loss of pre-school education majors due to transfer and other factors and change majors.
Small-class teaching refers to teaching in smaller classes. After the number of classes is reduced, what should be reflected is not only a change in the number of students, but also an innovation in the teaching content, teaching methods and the teaching implementation process, putting forward new requirements and incorporating new teaching methods for the teaching implementation strategy, teaching medium, and the way of communication and discussion between teachers and students. At the same time, small-class teaching is also in line with the requirements of the new period of national talent training. The Outline of the National Medium- and Long-Term Educational Reform and Development Plan (2010-2020) points out that higher education should cultivate high-quality specialists and top-notch innovators, update the concept of talent cultivation, and establish the concepts of comprehensive development, overall development, individuality development, sustainable development and systematic cultivation. Small class teaching helps to cultivate innovative talents. In smaller class sizes, teachers have sufficient time and energy to guide students and stimulate their interest in learning and desire for knowledge. In the curriculum should follow the principle of “less but more precise”, “less” means that the number of courses should be streamlined, avoiding the repeated appearance of repeated subjects, while at the same time merging sub-specialty courses and building a cross-disciplinary curriculum system. “Refinement” refers to the timely ‘updating’ of the teaching content of the curriculum, avoiding the use of old examples and content, and providing students with timely information on the results of cutting-edge research in the discipline, so as to improve the quality of the curriculum, thereby better adapting to the development needs of kindergartens.
Firstly, in terms of curriculum integration, it is necessary to understand the actual needs of early education in practice, so as to set up additional courses adapted to the actual needs, such as “Sensory Integration Training” and “Management of Early Childhood Education Institutions” and other courses. Secondly, additional elective courses should be set up to reflect the advantages of specialties, and according to the needs of early education institutions, special elective courses can be set up, such as “Orff Music Teaching Method” and “Montessori Teaching Method” and other special courses, in order to meet the needs of students who will take up such courses after graduation. Finally, the scope of training bases should be expanded. Finally, the scope of practical training bases should not be limited to kindergartens only, but should also form close contact with various early education institutions and actively learn advanced concepts and methods of early education. Promoting the development of college curriculum content through the integration of child care and education can effectively expand the knowledge of students, so as to meet the actual needs of society.
The digital transformation of education is a demand of social development. On the one hand, “Internet+” should be integrated into the preschool education classroom, reforming the traditional theoretical lecture and indoctrination mode of curriculum implementation, and adopting the teaching mode of small-scale online courses. For example, flipped classroom, catechism, microclasses and other mixed teaching modes can be used to let students watch the small video on the knowledge points explained by the teacher recorded in advance in the catechism before the new class is taught, so that students can enter the new class with thoughts and stimulate their curiosity and interest. On the other hand, a variety of course teaching forms should be adopted, the place of classroom teaching should not be limited to the classroom, and the main body of teaching should not be only the teacher, to enhance the effectiveness of course implementation.
This paper studies the status quo and dilemma of preschool education professional development in the context of low fertility, analyzes the situation of China’s birth rate in 2011-2023, after 2016, the decline in China’s birth rate expanded significantly, and the four-year birth rate fell below 10 per thousand in 2020-2023, which were 8.563 per thousand, 9.156 per thousand, 8.453 per thousand, and 8.123 per thousand respectively. Starting from 2021, the number of young children in the country begins to fall back, compared with the previous year, the number of children will decrease by 5.7 million in 2021, 2.27 million in 2022 and 1.39 million in 2023. In 2020, most of China fails to reach a total fertility rate of 2.1, and the fertility rate in the whole country reaches 2.168 in Guizhou only, and only two provinces, Guizhou and Guangxi, have a level of fertility of more than 2. Beijing, Shanghai, and the three northeastern provinces have a total fertility rate of less than 1.0, which means that China is facing the dilemma of wasting educational resources against the background of a low fertility rate. According to this dilemma, the development path of preschool education majors in colleges and universities has been proposed in terms of course forms, contents and modes.