Multi-dimensional research and quantitative evaluation of export potential of Dezhou smes to Central Asia based on multi-level regression model under the background of China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway

China has become an important export trade country in the world, and in the context of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway, the study of the potential of China’s export trade to the Central Asian countries along the route has important theoretical value and practical significance. This paper selects the small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Dezhou as the specific research object, combines the stochastic frontier gravity model and the trade inefficiency model to explore the relevant factors affecting the export trade of SMEs in Dezhou to Central Asia, so as to construct a model to realize the analysis of its trade efficiency and the measurement of trade potential. It is found that the economic size of the two countries, the population size of the importing country, the common border, the level of transportation infrastructure, the efficiency of the customs clearance procedure, the trade freedom, and the free trade agreement promote the export of products, and the geographical distance between the two countries, the population size of the exporting country, and the tariff level of the importing country impede the export of products. In addition, by measuring the trade potential of SMEs in Dezhou exporting to Central Asia, it is found that the ranking of the export potential value and potential improvement space of SMEs in Dezhou for the products of the five Central Asian countries are as follows: Kyrgyzstan>Kazakhstan>Uzbekistan>Tajikistan>Turkmenistan. This paper provides a model reference for SMEs to make relevant decisions based on their trade potential and potential improvement space.