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Online Opinion Risk Control and Ideology Construction of College Students in New Media Environment

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21 mar 2025
INFORMAZIONI SU QUESTO ARTICOLO

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Introduction

The development of the Internet has prompted today’s society to enter the era of “everyone can hold a microphone”, expanding the discourse power of college students, making colleges and universities frequently become the focus of online public opinion, and the complex and turbulent public opinion environment also brings new problems, opportunities and challenges to ideological education in colleges and universities [1-4]. College students are the new force for the future development of society and shoulder the important responsibility of national rejuvenation, and colleges and universities are the fertile ground for ideological education, so they should grasp the risk management of public opinion in colleges and universities and maintain the safety of college students in the field of ideology, so as to implement the fundamental task of cultivating morality and educating people [5-8].

In the era of new media networks, the mainstream ideology of college students faces the challenges of diversity and plurality. On the one hand, new media networks provide college students with a wide range of information sources and communication platforms, making them more open and diversified. On the other hand, new media networks also have the problems of information overload and false information, which can easily lead to college students’ ideology being misled or confused [9-12]. In the face of this situation, college students need to continuously improve their information recognition ability, actively participate in diversified network communication activities, strengthen academic research and social practice, keep an open mind and respect others’ views and choices [13-15]. Only in this way can college students better control and cope with the challenges from online public opinion in the new media era and form a healthy and rational mainstream ideology [16-17].

Literature [18] aims to construct a network public opinion evaluation model suitable for the university environment through fuzzy evaluation method, and to construct effective network public opinion guidance measures. The results of the study point out that this method can effectively deal with the uncertainty of the online public opinion environment, improve the accuracy and credibility of the evaluation, and help to improve the online public opinion environment and enhance the health of online public opinion. Literature [19] aims to explore the main factors affecting our understanding of the theory of online public opinion communication about major epidemics among college students. Based on the questionnaire survey, the validity of the theoretical model and measurement tools was verified using intelligent PLS. Conclusions such as “adult attachment and social motivation have an important positive influence on the awareness of social participation” were drawn, which is conducive to improving the understanding of online public opinion on major emergencies and provides a basis for guiding the initiation and dissemination of online public opinion. Based on the analysis of the connotation and characteristics of new media, combined with regression calculation, literature [20] discussed the influence of new media on college students from multiple angles, discussed the characteristics of college students’ public opinion, and put forward measures to cope with social pressure and public opinion from multiple dimensions. Literature [21] points out that the unique context and information attributes of the network circle promote the development of disorderly public opinion, and topic deviation is usually accompanied by negative emotions. It also seeks strategies to govern public opinion accordingly from the perspectives of shaping the online environment and optimizing human resources in colleges and universities. Literature [22] aims to understand the impact of social media on student achievement. Using the survey method to collect data and research on student groups, the results show that social media has a certain role in promoting students’ performance, but there is a significant difference between the performance and the impact of social media is large. Literature [23] compared college students’ online public opinion crisis events with other literature. It also outlines the research response initiatives based on innovative and comprehensive use of big data technology according to the mental health characteristics of college students. It emphasized that the mental health problems of college students cannot be separated from the establishment of a perfect emergency protection system. Literature [24] emphasizes the important topic of network ideological security in higher-level education in the new era, namely, exploring the main causes and negative impacts of college students’ network group polarization, and examining in-depth the guiding measures to cope with the negative impacts of college students’ network group polarization, so as to exclude the potential risks of college students’ network group polarization. Literature [25] used two research methods, literature and case study method, to develop a comparative analysis with two universities as research objects. The importance of controlling the spread of online public opinion is emphasized, and suggestions for universities and social media to manage the construction of online public opinion are put forward in order to promote students to establish a correct view of education.

This paper simulates and analyzes the main influencing factors of network public opinion evolution using the complex network public opinion evolution model and virus propagation model. Based on this, five risk control strategies for college students’ online public opinion are proposed, namely: random control strategy, strategy based on network k− kernel indicators, strategy based on network degree indicators, strategy based on node weights (point weights), and strategy based on group influence of nodes. Then, the relationship between degree, k− kernel and node weights is analyzed, and the opinion dissemination suppression effects of the five strategies are compared. Finally, the path to constructing a network security ideology for college students is proposed.

Opinion dynamics models of complex network evolution

In order to realize the risk control of college students’ online public opinion in the new media environment and to promote the ideology construction, it is first necessary to analyze the influence mechanism of online public opinion evolution. To this end, this paper constructs a model of SIRH viral propagation based on the evolution of complex network public opinion, in order to explore the power mechanism of public opinion propagation.

Complex networks

A complex network is a network that consists of many nodes and nodes together with the connectivity relationships between them, in conjunction with graph theory, a complex network is a network topology graph with many nodes and intricate edges [26]. Any complex system is composed of many edges and nodes. The nodes represent different individuals in the system, and the edges represent the relationships that exist between individuals. Social networks are typical complex networks, and in recent years, various social platforms and new media have emerged and flourished, making complex networks a hot research topic.

Complex Network Basic Characteristics

The main basic statistical characterizations of complex networks are as follows:

Degree and degree distribution

Degree is the most basic statistical feature quantity of complex networks. For an undirected network, the degree is defined as the number of connected edges of a node, but for a directed network, the connected edges of a node are directed, and the degree of a node can be further divided into in-degree and out-degree, in-degree is the number of connected edges pointing to the node, and out-degree is the number of connected edges pointing from the node to other nodes. The degree of a node is one of the measures of the importance of a node in a network. The topology of a complex network can be represented by the adjacency matrix A = (Aij) and the degree of a node i in the network is represented by ki. The formula is as follows: ki=j=1nAij$${k_i} = \sum\limits_{j = 1}^n {{A_{ij}}}$$

Where n is the number of nodes of the network. The degree of a single node is a study of the complex network from a local point of view, then the average degree of the network is a study of the complex network from a global point of view, and its value is the average of the degrees of all nodes in the network, denoted by 〈k〉, and computed by the formula: k=1ni=1nki=1ni=1nj=1nAij$$\langle k\rangle = \frac{1}{n}\sum\limits_{i = 1}^n {{k_i}} = \frac{1}{n}\sum\limits_{i = 1}^n {\sum\limits_{j = 1}^n {{A_{ij}}} }$$

In an undirected network, each edge is connected to two nodes, and if the number of edges in the network is denoted as m, then there are nodes with 2m edges in the network. The number of nodes attached to all edges and the sum of the degrees of all nodes must be equal, then: 2m=i=1nki$$2m = \sum\limits_{i = 1}^n {{k_i}}$$

To wit: m=12i=1nki=12i=1nj=1nAij$$m = \frac{1}{2}\sum\limits_{i = 1}^n {{k_i}} = \frac{1}{2}\sum\limits_{i = 1}^n {\sum\limits_{j = 1}^n {{A_{ij}}} }$$

The degree of all nodes in the network is ranked and the proportion of nodes with degree k among all nodes is counted and the result obtained is the degree distribution p(k).

Clustering Coefficient

The clustering coefficient is used to measure the size of the probability of the occurrence of this phenomenon in a network. Its more common definition in complex networks is to measure the probability that two neighbors of a node are neighbors of each other. The clustering coefficient Ci for node i with degree ki is calculated as: Ci=Ei(ki(ki1))/2$${C_i} = \frac{{{E_i}}}{{({k_i}({k_i} - 1))/2}}$$

where Ei is the number of pairs of nodes where the neighbor nodes of node i are neighbors of each other, and (ki(ki − 1))/2 is the sum of pairs of neighbor nodes of node i. From equation (5), it can be seen that as the degree k increases, Ci keeps decreasing, which means that nodes with large degrees tend to have smaller clustering coefficients, and this phenomenon can be explained by the fact that a network can be partitioned into several tight associations, with many connecting edges between nodes within the same association and fewer connecting edges between nodes belonging to different associations.

For a network with a given degree distribution, the clustering coefficient C of the network is calculated as follows: C=1n[k2k]2k3$$C = \frac{1}{n}\frac{{{{[\langle {k^2}\rangle - \langle k\rangle ]}^2}}}{{{{\langle k\rangle }^3}}}$$

where 〈k2〉 is the second order moments and 〈k〉 is the average degree. For a given network, both 〈k2〉 and 〈k〉 have fixed finite values. From Eq. (6), it can be seen that the value of C becomes smaller when n → ∞, so the clustering coefficients are usually smaller for large-scale networks.

Average shortest path

In complex networks, paths refer to the pathways between nodes, starting from a node, along the edges in the network can reach another node, it is said that there is a pathway between the two nodes. The pathway with the least number of edges is called the shortest path. From a macroscopic point of view, the network has an average shortest path, which is denoted as L. Then, the formula for L is: L=1n(n1)/2ijdij$$L = \frac{1}{{n(n - 1)/2}}\sum\limits_{i \ge j} {{d_{ij}}}$$

where n is the number of nodes in the network and dij is the shortest path between any two nodes i and j in the network. The size of the average shortest path of a complex network represents the tightness of the network topology.

Small World Network

There are some complex networks where most of the nodes in the network are not connected to each other by edges, but most of the nodes have short distances between them, and complex networks with this characteristic are called small-world networks. Small world networks are intricate networks that have high clustering coefficients and low average paths. Offline interpersonal network is a typical small-world network, and the famous “six degrees of separation” theory proves that interpersonal connections can be established in a social network through only six people.

The WS small-world network model is a new network formed by changing the connecting edges of a regular network with a certain probability, which is different from a regular network and is not a completely randomized network, and the steps of constructing a WS small-world network are briefly described as follows:

First, given n node with a ring distribution, then, let each node create connected edges with its left and right neighboring k/2 nodes.

The next step for the already created network is to reconnect the edges already in the network with probability p, i.e., fixing one vertex of the edge and randomly reconnecting the other vertex.

It is important to note in the construction process that in step (2), no white connected and duplicate edges can be created.

Scale-free networks

The degree distribution of some complex networks shows a serious uneven distribution, i.e., a small number of nodes in the network have very large degree values, and most of the nodes have very small degree values, and such a network is defined as a scale-free network.

Scale-free networks are generally constructed by the BA model, which is a model based on the growth pattern, i.e., new nodes are constantly joining the network and will preferentially form connection edges with those nodes that have large degrees.The specific principles of constructing a BA scale-free network are briefly described as follows:

Start with a very small connected network with m0 node, then, based on this network structure, introduce new nodes in turn, and establish connection edges with the existing m(mm0) nodes.

The m nodes required in step 1) are selected from all the nodes with a certain probability, and the larger the degree of the node, the higher the probability of selection. If the probability of node i being selected is denoted as w, the formula is: w=ki(k1+k2+...+kn)$$w = \frac{{{k_i}}}{{({k_1} + {k_2} + ... + {k_n})}}$$

where n is the number of nodes in the network.

Internet Public Opinion

Internet public opinion often centers on social phenomena of public concern and reflects the current social issues that the public is most concerned about, epitomizing social public opinion. The main components of online public opinion are subject, object, and carrier. The subject is the public on the Internet, the object is the event itself, and the carrier is various social platforms on the Internet.

In addition, online public opinion is affected by many factors, such as internal factors, i.e. the influence and destructive power possessed by the matter itself, and external factors, i.e. the driving force from Internet users and various media. In the new media environment, due to the anonymity and virtuality of Internet users, the Internet is flooded with a variety of massive information, the authenticity as well as the reliability of the information can not be obtained in time, and some malicious users spread false information that jeopardizes the social stability or disrupts the public order, and most of the users are unable to judge the accuracy of it, which is prone to cause widespread dissemination and panic. The complexity of the network environment, the flattening of the network society, and the lack of work in guiding public opinion have caused network public opinion to easily fall into a quagmire.

Although there are some negative impacts of online public opinion, it also expresses the public’s inner will. If there is an in-depth study of online public opinion, it can be developed as a means for governments or management organizations to promote positive images and monitor social phenomena. This paper, on the other hand, explores the strategies for controlling the risk of college students’ online public opinion through the study of the influencing elements of online public opinion dissemination, so as to promote and strengthen the construction of ideology.

Modeling Complex Online Opinion
Opinion model

Let v be an opinion of each node (each individual is considered a node in a complex network, so in this paper we will collectively refer to them as nodes), combining the opinions to be polar opposites at either end of its boundary, and v varying in a closed subset of the boundary. Let l be the number of connections of the opinions, which is a discrete variable with a value that varies between 0 and a maximum number. The maximum number here usually refers to some fixed value, e.g., a value that is n orders of magnitude smaller than the network size.

Let f be the evolution equation for the density function: f=f(v,l,t);f:V×L×R+R+$$f = f(v,l,t)\:;\:f:V \times L \times {R^ + } \to {R^ + }$$

Where: vV(V ∈ [ − 1, 1]) is an opinion variable. lL and satisfies L = {0, 1, ⋯, lmax}, is a discrete variable describing the number of connections. tR+ is a common time variable. For each time t ≥ 0 the following marginal densities can be computed: ρ(l,t)=tf(v,l,t)dv$$\rho (l,t) = \int_t f (v,l,t)\:{\text{d}}v$$

The evolution of the number of connections is equivalent to the degree distribution of the network, assuming that the number of nodes is conserved, i.e: l=0lmaxρ(l,t)=1$$\sum\limits_{l = 0}^{{l_{\max }}} \rho (l,t)\: = \:1$$

The overall opinion opinion distribution is defined as a marginal density function of: g(v,t)=l=0lmaxf(v,l,t)$$g(v,t) = \sum\limits_{l = 0}^{{l_{\max }}} f (v,l,t)$$

Describing the nodes from micro point of view nodes are modifying the opinion with binary interaction and number of connections, if two nodes opinion and number of connections, i.e., (v, l) and (v*, l*) meet then the opinion opinion after interaction becomes v′ and v*$${v_*}^\prime$$ and the opinion after interaction takes the range of values V ∈ [ − 1, 1]. The time evolution equation of the function is represented by the Boltzmann equation [27]: ddtf(v,l,t)+τ[f(v,l,t)]=Q(f,f)(v,l,t)$$\frac{d}{{dt}}f(v,l,t)\: + \:\tau \left[ {f(v,l,t)\:} \right]\: = \:Q\left( {f,f} \right)\:\left( {v,l,t} \right)$$

where: τ[·] denotes the operator associated with the evolution of network connections and Q(·, ·) denotes the binary interaction operator. The weak form of the computationally obtained formula is as follows: ddtVf(v,l)ψ(v)dv+Vτ[f(v,l)]ψ(v)dv =λl* = 0lmaxV2(ψ(v)ψ(v))f(v*,l*)f(v,l)dvdv*$$\begin{array}{l} \frac{{\text{d}}}{{{\text{d}}t}}\int_V f (v,l)\:\psi (v)\:{\text{d}}v\: + \:\int_V \tau \:[f(v,l)\:]\psi (v)\:{\text{d}}v \\ \: = \lambda \sum\limits_{{l_*}\: = \:0}^{{l_{{\text{max}}}}} {\int_{{V^2}} {(\psi ({v^\prime })\: - \psi (v))} } f({v_*}\:,{l_*}\:)f(v,l)\:{\text{d}}v{\text{d}}{v_*} \\ \end{array}$$

Where “$$\left\langle \cdot \right\rangle$$” denotes the expected value of the random variable.

Evolutionary model of public opinion

Regarding the opinion evolution process, the process of adding and deleting edges in complex networks is strictly related to the static scale-free scale. In this paper, we set the operator τ[·] in the dynamic description of the network to be a detail in the model of connection evolution of nodes in discrete space, and τ[·] define expressions to describe the process of connection evolution in terms of deletion and addition of edges in the network through preferred connection combinations.

For each l = 1, 2, ⋯, lmax − 1 defined as follows: τ[f(v,l,t)]=2Sd(f;v)ω+β[(l+1+β)f(v,l+1,t)(l+β)f(v,l,t)] 2Sa(f;v)ω+α[(l1+α)f(v,l1,t)(l+α)f(v,l,t)]$$\begin{array}{l} \tau [f(v,l,t)\:]\: = - \:\frac{{2{S_d}(f;v)}}{{\omega + \beta }}[(l\: + \:1\: + \beta )f(v,l\: + \:1,t)\: - (l + \beta )f(v,l,t)\:]\: - \\ \frac{{2{S_a}\:(f;v)}}{{\omega + \alpha }}\:[(l - 1\: + \alpha )f(v,l - 1,t)\: - (l + \alpha )f(v,l,t)] \\ \end{array}$$

Where: α, β > 0 is the attraction factor. Sd(f; v) ≥ 0 is the link removal probability. Sa(f; v) ≥ 0 is the rate of adding links, and many studies have shown that removals and additions generally occur in pairs. ω = ω(t) denotes the average connectivity density. ω(t)$$\omega \left( t \right)$$ is defined as follows: .ω(t)=l=0lmaxlρ(l,t)$$\omega (t)\: = \:\sum\limits_{l = 0}^{{l_{\max }}} l \:\rho (l,t)$$

Eq. (15) describes the f(v, l, t) net increment due to changes in connectivity between nodes with boundaries defined as follows: { τ[f(v,0,t)]=2Sd(f;v)ω+β(1+β)f(v,1,t)+2Sa(f;v)ω+ααf(v,0,t) τ[f(v,lmax,t)]=2Sd(f;v)ω+β(lmax+β)f(v,lmax,t) 2Sa(f;v)ω+α(lmax1+α)f(v,lmax1,t)$$\left\{ {\begin{array}{*{20}{l}} {\tau \left[ {f(v,0,t)} \right] = - \frac{{2{S_d}(f;v)}}{{\omega + \beta }}(1 + \beta )f(v,1,t) + \frac{{2{S_a}(f;v)}}{{\omega + \alpha }}\alpha f(v,0,t)} \\\quad\quad\quad \begin{array}{l} \tau [f(v,{l_{max}},t)] = \frac{{2{S_d}(f;v)}}{{\omega + \beta }}({l_{max}} + \beta )f(v,{l_{max}},t) - \\ \frac{{2{S_a}(f;v)}}{{\omega + \alpha }}({l_{max}} - 1 + \alpha )f(v,{l_{max}} - 1,t) \\ \end{array} \end{array}} \right.$$

Two factual existence cases should be taken into account in Eq. (17), i.e., nodes cannot be removed when there are 0 connections between them, and nodes cannot be added when they have reached a maximum value of connections between them.

If the characteristic rate is defined as: { Sd(f;v)=Udω+βωf+βg(v,t) Sa(f;v)=Uaω+αωf+αg(v,t)$$\left\{ {\begin{array}{*{20}{c}} {{S_d}(f;v) = \:{U_d}\:\frac{{\omega + \beta }}{{\omega f + \beta g(v,t)}}} \\ {{S_a}(f;v) = \:{U_a}\:\frac{{\omega + \alpha }}{{\omega f + \alpha g(v,t)}}} \end{array}} \right.$$

Among them: ωf(v,t)=l=0lmaxlf(v,l,t)$$\omega f(v,t)\: = \:\sum\limits_{l = 0}^{{l_{\max }}} l f(v,l,t)$$

density associated with the preferred combination of attachment process (α, β ≈ 0) and unification process (α, β > 0) for each opinion opinion v in Eq. (15) is f(v,l,t)g(v,t)$$\frac{{f(v,l,t)}}{{g(v,t)}}$$.

Assuming that the total number of nodes in τ[:] is conserved, considering the evolution of the average connectivity density ω over square kilometers in Eq. (16), the evolution of the average connectivity density yields that for each t ≥ 0 there is: ddtω(t)=2VSd(f;v)ωf+βg(v,t)ω+βdv +2VSa(f;v)ωf+αg(v,t)v+αdv +2βω+βVSa(f;v)ωf+αg(v,t)v+αdv 2(lmax+α)ω+αVSa(f;v)f(v,lmax,t)dv$$\begin{array}{l} \frac{d}{{dt}}\:\omega (t) = - \:2\int_V {{S_d}} (f;v)\:\frac{{\omega f + \beta g(v,t)}}{{\omega + \beta }}\:dv\: \\\quad\quad\quad + 2\int\limits_V {{S_a}} (f;v)\frac{{\omega f + \alpha g(v,t)}}{{v + \alpha }}dv \\\quad\quad\quad + \frac{{2\beta }}{{\omega + \beta }}\int\limits_V {{S_a}} (f;v)\frac{{\omega f + \alpha g(v,t)}}{{v + \alpha }}dv \\\quad\quad\quad - \frac{{2({l_{\max }} + \alpha )}}{{\omega + \alpha }}\int\limits_V {{S_a}} (f;v)f(v,{l_{\max }},t)dv \\ \end{array}$$

Typically ω is not conserved and gradually reaches a conserved state when the attraction coefficient is β = 0. The density function f(v, l, t) decays at a sufficiently fast rate if the eigenrate under the conditions of Sd = Sa is given by Eq. (19) and is set Ud = Ua.

For node conservation number setting: l=0lmaxτ[f(v,l,t)]dv=0$$\sum\limits_{l = 0}^{{l_{\max }}} \tau \left[ {f(v,l,t)\:} \right]dv\: = \:0$$

The conservation of the total number of nodes can be obtained when the conditions required by Eq. (18) are satisfied, and the formula is as follows: ddtl=0lmaxρ(l,t)=Vl=0lmaxτ[f(v,l,t)]dv=0$$\frac{d}{{dt}}\sum\limits_{l = 0}^{{l_{\max }}} \rho (l,t) = - \int_V {\sum\limits_{l = 0}^{{l_{\max }}} \tau } \left[ {f(v,l,t)\:} \right]dv\: = \:0$$

There is a special case where Sd and Sa are constants, when operator τ[: ] is linear, denoted by T[·], and the evolution of network connections is not affected by changes in public opinion, yielding Eq: ddtρ(l,t)+T[ρ(l,t)]=0$$\frac{d}{{dt}}\rho (l,t)\: + \:T\left[ {\rho (l,t)\:} \right]\: = \:0$$

Among them: T[ρ(l,t)]=2Sdω+β[ (l+1+β)ρ(l+1,t)(l+β)ρ(l,t)] 2Saω+α[(l1+α)ρ(l1,t) (l+α)ρ(l,t)]$$T\left[ {\rho (l,t)} \right] = - \frac{{2{S_{\text{d}}}}}{{\omega + \beta }}\left[ \begin{array}{l} (l + 1 + \beta )\rho (l + 1,t) - (l + \beta )\rho (l,t)] \\ - \frac{{2{S_a}}}{{\omega + \alpha }}[(l - 1 + \alpha )\rho (l - 1,t) \\ - (l + \alpha )\rho (l,t) \\ \end{array} \right]$$

The dynamical equations of Eq. (24) correspond to the connectivity density functions of the optimal connectivity process (α, β ≈ 0) and the unification process (α, β > 0) as ρ(l, t). Due to the nature of complex network connectivity, the asymptotics of the connectivity density, denoted by ω, can be proved in general in the linear case of Sd = Sa, β = 0.

Let the static solution be equivalent for each lL: (l+1)ρ(l+1)=1ω+α[(r(2l+α)+ωα)ρ(l) ω(l1+α)ρ(l1)]$$\begin{array}{rcl} (l + 1){\rho _\infty }(l + 1) = \:\frac{1}{{\omega + \alpha }}\:[(r(2l\: + \:\alpha )\: + \:\omega \alpha ){\rho _\infty }\:(l) \\ \: - \omega (l\: - \:1\: + \:\alpha ){\rho _\infty }(l\: - \:1)\:] \\ \end{array}$$

And then get: ρ(l)=(ωω+α)l1l!α(α+1)(α+l1)ρ(0)$${\rho _\infty }(l) = {(\frac{\omega }{{\omega + \alpha }})^l}\frac{1}{{l!}}\alpha (\alpha + 1) \cdots (\alpha + l - 1){\rho _\infty }(0)$$

Among them: ρ(0)=(αα+ω)α$${\rho _\infty }(0) = {(\frac{\alpha }{{\alpha \: + \:\omega }})^\alpha }$$

Further approximate solutions are obtained in the case of α ≥ 1 and α = 0, for α taking a positive exponent of 10, where the preferential connectivity process described by Eq. (24) is corrupted and the network is approximated as a stochastic network with a degree distribution obeying a Poisson distribution, which is obtained in the practical case when the limiting value of α tends to positive infinity: ρ(l)=limα+(1+ωα)αωl=ell!ωl$${\rho _\infty }\:(l) = \:\mathop {\lim }\limits_{\alpha \to + \infty } {(\:1\: + \:\frac{\omega }{\alpha })^{ - \alpha }}{\omega ^l}\: = \:\frac{{{e^{ - l}}}}{{l!}}\:{\omega ^l}$$

where e is a natural constant, and for the negative exponential case where ω ≥ 1 and α take the value 10, the density distribution can be accurately approximated as a single exponential truncated power law, i.e., denoted as: ρ(l)=(αω)ααl$${\rho _\infty }(l) = {(\frac{\alpha }{\omega })^\alpha }\frac{\alpha }{l}$$

The Construction of the Internet Public Opinion Dissemination Model
Selection of online public opinion communication variables

The factors related to the spread of online public opinion can be roughly divided into three categories: the first category is the measurable quantity category, including the number of subjects, the number of subjects that can disseminate information, the number of subjects that are not sufficiently sensitive to the same information, and the number of correlations with links to the outside world. The second category is the control category, which includes the prescribed level of public opinion dissemination, the reality of the start of the control work, its duration, and the percentage of uncredible information. The third category is the environment category, which encompasses factors like the scope of dissemination, the speed of dissemination, and the level of dissemination. In practice, not all categories of factors can be realized for their control of dynamics. The primary explanation is that the kinetic features are not significant and the kinetic constants cannot be identified. Therefore, in the practical work and modeling, the design of some kinetic constants is discarded, and the propagation variables of the public opinion propagation model are traded off under the premise of ensuring that the propagation of a certain public opinion can be demonstrated completely.

In addition to the above factors, the following concepts are also often used when expressing public opinion:

Time: In the process of public opinion dissemination, time is the key node for measuring the effect of opinion control and controlling the resolution of negative public opinion. Therefore, in this study, it is instructive to take time as a constant scalar, and it is also possible to select a specific control time node through simulation, and then derive an analysis of the effectiveness of the public opinion guidance policy through the displacement of the node.

Strength of Public Opinion: That is, the degree of strength or weakness of the ability to spread public opinion. Netizens have different sensitivities to a point of view and different concerns as a group, so public opinion itself will have different degrees of influence when it breaks out. In the simulation variables, the concept of probability is introduced, assuming that a certain propagation subject is O, and its ability to influence the surrounding is denoted by P. P[0,1]$$P \in \left[ {0,1} \right]$$, the closer it is to 1, the stronger the influence effect is, and after a number of successive multiplications, the greater the number of factors A that reach the far end of the influence will be.

Receiving population: from the perspective of the receiving population, each person is both a receiver and an emitter of online opinion information, with both the desire to disseminate and the possibility of terminating the dissemination at any time with the marginalization, i.e., the weakening of interest, of the BA scale-free network. Based on this, the receiving population is also considered as one of the data to be considered separately, and the percentage of each attitude in the population is used to indicate the specific stage and current status of opinion dissemination.

Classical virus propagation model under VM theory

In the development of traditional dynamics, there is a class of VM viral models that have been widely used in a variety of different fields, ranging from computer virus propagation, social network construction, to information dissemination, which have been used as classical models in various fields of dynamics, and the viral models have been developed through continuous evolution and formed three kinds of models, i.e., the SI/SIS, and the SIR models.

In the classical transmission model, scholars classify the population into transmission state S, susceptible state I, and immune state R, where state S has a certain probability of transmitting the virus or information from one infected subject O to another infected subject A, and state A has a chance to become a transmitter like O. I represents a susceptible population that has not received any effect in the transmission environment, and R indicates complete immunity, which is no longer infected after repeated transmission.

The SI model is based on the wireless transmission scenario derived from the traditional scale-free network model, i.e., when an individual is affected, then it does not recover and has a certain amount of influence to continue affecting other subjects. Assuming that the probability that an individual is exposed to infection is p, and the total number of individuals is designed to be N, when N is distributed in the scale-free network, the infection time can be analyzed, and the propagation model is as follows: { dSdt=pSIN dIt=pSIN$$\left\{ {\begin{array}{*{20}{l}} {\frac{{dS}}{{dt}} = - p\frac{{SI}}{N}} \\ {d\frac{I}{t} = p\frac{{SI}}{N}} \end{array}} \right.$$

The individual rate of change over time is: didt=pi(1i)$$\frac{{di}}{{dt}} = pi(1 - i)$$

So: { i(t)=i0ept1i0+i0ept i0=i(0)$$\left\{ {\begin{array}{*{20}{l}} {i(t) = \frac{{{i_0}{e^{pt}}}}{{1 - {i_0} + {i_0}{e^{pt}}}}} \\ {{i_0} = i(0)} \end{array}} \right.$$

As in equation (32), the t setting is brought in to derive the number of infected individuals from the 0th moment to the tnd moment Therefore, in the initial time period, when most individuals are in the I state, any S state meets the I state individuals will be free to propagate, and therefore exponentially grow and gradually converge to the saturation state.

However, in the actual propagation process, each individual can not always be the propagation state, that is, due to the insensitivity of the information and the propagation of the willingness of the change occurs not the same change, such as the probability of r differentiation into the state of R will not spread, or after the forgetting of the state from the state of S back to the state of I. In turn, SIS and SIR models that can reflect self-healing behavior emerge.

The SIR model is the classical model of scale-free network propagation and has a very important place in most research works on propagation types [28].

The SIR model is schematically shown in Fig. 1. Based on the SI model, the SIR model considers the probability of a I state transitioning to a S state as q and a S state differentiating into a state that no longer propagates as R.

Figure 1.

SIR Model

Model simulation and analysis

In order to investigate the promotion effect of the combination of information dissemination and public opinion evolution on each other, this paper conducts computer simulation experiments on the process of information dissemination and public opinion evolution on scale-free networks based on the constructed dynamics model of online public opinion dissemination.

Influence of attitudinal tendencies on the evolution of public opinion

The state of public opinion can be inferred from the percentage of published views of a particular opinion. In this paper, we count the ratio of the number of published opinions with O = 1 to the total number of published opinions, denoted by u+. The ratio of the number of individuals in the group with a positive tendency (indicating positive, supportive, etc.) is denoted by p+, while the ratio of the number of individuals with a negative tendency (indicating negative, opposing, etc.) is denoted by p. The logarithm of the evolution of u+ over time corresponding to different values of p+ is plotted as shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2.

Evolution of the proportion of published O=1 views over time

From Fig. 2, it can be seen that regardless of the value of p+, u+ tends to stabilize, from which it can be inferred that public opinion will evolve in a certain direction and converge to a certain state in the process of information dissemination. However, the value of p+ can effectively influence the evolution of public opinion, the smaller |p+p|$$\left| {{p_ + } - {p_ - }} \right|$$ is, the closer u+ is to 0.5, which means that the more controversial the topic is, the more difficult it is for the group to reach a consensus.

The Impact of Network Connectivity on Information Dissemination and Public Opinion Evolution

Existing related studies have confirmed that the topology of the network has different degrees of influence on the process and results of information dissemination and opinion evolution. Scale-free networks are more robust than random or regular networks, and scale-free networks are more conducive to the propagation of information or viruses. On random or regular networks, the disease spreads to the whole network only when the infection rate reaches some critical value greater than zero. On scale-free networks, on the other hand, the critical value of the infection rate of infectious diseases drops to 0, and an arbitrarily small infection rate can cause a disease infection in the whole network. This section focuses on the effect of network topology on the outcome of information dissemination and viewpoint evolution by changing the connectivity of the network.

The connectivity of the network can be compared by the average degree of the network nodes, the higher the average degree of the nodes, the better the network connectivity.

The BA scale-free network is used as the study network, and networks a, b, and c are generated with the following parameters:

Network a: network size Na = 10000, m0 = m = 9, then average degree of network nodes ka=18$$\left\langle {{k_a}} \right\rangle = 18$$.

Network b: network size Nb = 10000, m0 = m = 6, then average degree of network nodes kb=12$$\left\langle {{k_b}} \right\rangle = 12$$.

Network c: network size Nc = 10000, m0 = m = 3, then average degree of network nodes kc=6$$\left\langle {{k_c}} \right\rangle = 6$$.

The simulation results are shown in Figures 3 and 4.

Figure 3.

Network degree affects the ultimate propagation scope

Figure 4.

Influence of average network degree on information dissemination process

The larger k$$\left\langle k \right\rangle$$ is, the faster the information spreads and the wider the final spread will be. Because the connectivity of the network is proportional to the average degree of the network, when the average degree of the network nodes is larger, the greater the chance that an individual receives the information, and the greater the chance that an individual will be informed of the information from his neighbors in the same period of time, it can be predicted that this will accelerate the speed of the information diffusion, and more people will be informed of the information.

The dynamics of the number of speakers in the network over time for different degree averages is shown in Figure 5. Experimental parameter p+ = 0.5. The degree average of the network has a strong effect on the motivation of individuals to speak. When k=6$$\left\langle k \right\rangle = 6$$, the number of people in the network in the I2-state remains small despite the value of |p+p|$$\left| {{p_ + } - {p_ - }} \right|$$ being zero. This suggests that despite the topic being highly controversial, the restricted flow of information makes it more difficult to generate widespread discussion and the topic heat dissipates relatively quickly.

Figure 5.

Influence of average network degree on the number of speakers

Impact of initial discussion groups on dissemination results

In this paper, nodes of high degree number are selected as the initial discussion group, and the results of investigating whether the node degree of the initial discussion group will have an impact on the information dissemination process are shown in Fig. 6.

Figure 6.

Influence of initial discussion groups on information dissemination

From Fig. 6, it can be seen that when the initial discussion group nodes themselves have a high degree, the range of information dissemination is substantially improved, and when the parameter p+ = 0.5, the R-value corresponding to the group with high node degree is close to 1.

Risk control and ideological construction of Internet public opinion among university students
Internet public opinion risk control strategy

This part examines the control strategies to inhibit college students’ risk in online opinion communication:

Random control strategy, i.e., randomly selecting a portion of individuals to control them.

A strategy based on network k−kernel metrics. The k−kernel metrics are used to describe the position of the node in the network, and the k−kernel of the node can be calculated by stripping the node from the network through the kernel decomposition method.

A strategy based on network degree metrics, which first orders the individuals according to the degree of the nodes from largest to smallest, and then controls a portion of the top-ordered individuals.

A strategy based on node weights (point weights), usually individuals with a large number of social relationships have a greater influence on others, and ωij(kikj)θ$${\omega _{ij}}\infty {\left( {{k_i}{k_j}} \right)^\theta }$$ can portray such relationships well. Where: θ is a constant, denoting the relationship between two individuals times, ki and kj, are the degrees of nodes i and j, respectively, without loss of generality, set θ = 1, and further, the weight of node i is obtained si=jNiωij$${s_i} = \sum\limits_{j \in {N_i}} {{\omega _{ij}}}$$, where Ni is the neighbor set of node i.

Node-based strategy for group influence. The group influence is calculated as shown below: CIi=(ki1)jBall(i,j)n(kj1)$$C{I_i} = \left( {{k_i} - 1} \right)\sum\limits_{j \in \partial Ball\left( {i,j} \right)}^n {\left( {{k_j} - 1} \right)}$$

Where Ball(i,j)$$Ball\left( {i,j} \right)$$ is all the nodes whose distance from node i is 1, and j = 2 is taken in the simulation test. based on the group influence of the nodes, the importance of the nodes in the whole network can be calculated more accurately.

Based on the Facebook social network dataset, the relationship between degree, k−kernel and node weight is analyzed.The type of Facebook network is undirected graph, the number of nodes is 64852, the number of edges is 816987, the average degree is 26.4, and the power-law exponent is -1.1452.The relationship between the 3 metrics in the Facebook dataset is shown in Fig. 7.

Figure 7.

Relationships among three metrics in the Facebook dataset

As can be seen in Fig. 7, the degree of nodes is within k[1,1450]$$k \in \left[ {1,1450} \right]$$, the average degree is k=26.4$$\left\langle k \right\rangle = 26.4$$, and the maximum k−core value is 52. As can be seen in Fig. 7(a), there are some nodes with smaller degrees but larger k−cores, and the degree fluctuates over a larger range when the k−cores are larger. This is due to the local association structure, where the relationship between nodes within an association is tighter and the relationship between nodes between associations is sparser. From Fig. 7(b), it can be seen that nodes with large degrees have larger weights, and in addition, when the node weights fluctuate within a small range, the degree fluctuation range is relatively small.

In the absence of control strategies, when the opinion spread rate is less than the opinion spread threshold, the opinion will not prevail in the social network. To wit: λ0<λc=1(1+b)(1h)G1(1)$${\lambda _0} < {\lambda _c} = \frac{1}{{\left( {1 + b} \right)\left( {1 - h} \right){{G'}_1}\left( 1 \right)}}$$

Where b[0,1]$$b \in \left[ {0,1} \right]$$ is a positive social reinforcement factor, i.e., the extent to which individuals believe in public opinion. h[0,1]$$h \in \left[ {0,1} \right]$$ is a negative social reinforcement factor, i.e., the extent to which individuals are skeptical of public opinion. λ0 is a constant, indicating the initial spread rate. λc is the opinion spreading threshold.

Similarly, different control strategies can be adopted to obtain the corresponding opinion spreading threshold, when the opinion spreading rate is less than the corresponding opinion spreading threshold, i.e., λ0 < λc, the opinion will not be prevalent in the social network. However, it is more difficult to theoretically calculate the opinion propagation threshold λc in the case of control strategies, and thus, this paper does not go deeper to mathematically derive the opinion propagation threshold. However, by analogy with other communication models in complex networks, it can be concluded that strengthening the control of public opinion can effectively increase the threshold of public opinion communication. And in the case of control strategy, the slower the speed of public opinion propagation, the smaller the scope of its propagation. Regardless of whether the control strategy is adopted or not, this paper can derive the range of public opinion dissemination under different dissemination rates through numerical simulation based on the connection relationship between individuals in the real world.

In addition, this paper focuses on the effect of the five different control strategies mentioned on the final opinion spreading range when the opinion spreading rate is the same. The effect of the control strategies is judged based on the size of the public opinion spreading range, i.e., when the spreading range is smaller, the control strategies are more effective.

First, the individuals are ranked from largest to smallest according to the metrics of 1k − kernel, degree, point power and group influence. Then the top 1% nodes are selected to control them respectively. Since all the nodes in the network will obtain the public opinion information quickly if the propagation rate is too large, it will be impossible to discern the difference of various control strategies, so the initial propagation rate is set to 0.02. A comparison of the results of the impact of different control strategies on public opinion propagation is shown in Fig. 8. Among them, (a)~(c) represent the comparison of control strategies when b=0.1, b=0.2, and b=0.3, respectively, when other parameters of control are unchanged.

Figure 8.

Influence of different control strategies on public opinion propagation

As can be seen from Fig. 8, with the change of positive and negative social reinforcement factors, the control strategy based on degree and point weights is better and more robust than the k−core and stochastic control strategy. On the one hand, according to Fig. 7, it can be seen that the larger the k−kernel is, the larger the degree is, and the fluctuation range of the degree is larger. If some target nodes are selected for control based on k−cores, the degree of these target nodes fluctuates more. On the other hand, there are some nodes with larger k−cores but smaller degrees, however, the nodes with larger k−cores are usually located in a special association, so controlling the nodes with larger k−cores will result in the phenomenon of local control, so the control strategy based on the k−core indicator is not an effective method to control the public opinion. Since degree and point power are global indicators, public opinion can be effectively controlled if target nodes are selected based on degree or point power indicators. In addition, there are some differences between online social networks and face-to-face contact networks, usually the degree of nodes in online social networks is larger, once some nodes spread the public opinion, most of their friends will receive and spread the public opinion quickly, which leads to the difference between the first four control strategies is not very obvious.

The control method that relies on group influence is superior to the other four control strategies, and it has a more significant control effect. This is due to the fact that controlling the nodes with higher group influence can effectively divide the network (even if the number of different regions in the network is maximized), and this method can quickly block the way of spreading public opinion and effectively inhibit the spread of public opinion.

Path of constructing online ideological security for college students

Social media is an important way for many netizens to obtain information, and it also affects the ideological values of young college students, thus giving full play to its role in leading and regulating ideological education is an important way for young college students to set up positive values and ideological awareness.

Regulating the cyber rule of law environment

The enhancement of legal construction can provide strong support and guarantee for the construction of network ideological security. By strengthening the construction of the network legal system and regulating the words and deeds of opinion leaders on the network, the legal system can provide support for network ideological security. By improving the real-name authentication of network information, we can also establish a binding network monitoring mechanism to regulate the words and actions of network opinion leaders. Online rumors continue to seriously mislead the public judgment, resulting in a bad social impact, the need to ferment public opinion at the same time to increase disciplinary efforts to reduce the irresponsible words and deeds of bad media, to play the mainstream opinion leaders in the supervision of public opinion on the positive leading role. At the same time, it is necessary to strengthen legal education, enhance the ability of netizens to identify and reduce the blind worship of bad online opinion leaders, and follow the trend.

Improving the media literacy of university students

As the front line of college students’ ideological education, schools should effectively shoulder the political responsibility, stand firm and guard the ideological position, and be responsible for guarding the land, guarding the land and being responsible for guarding the land. Colleges and universities can actively build campus media culture exchange platforms, by opening college ideological education positions in major mainstream media, creating official public numbers, official microblogging and other new media communication matrices, using them as effective platforms to guide the cultivation of network opinion leaders, and cultivating opinion leaders who are easily accepted by college students and who can lead the transmission of positive energy. Embedding media literacy education courses in the talent cultivation process of universities is popularized, promoting theoretical knowledge of online media literacy, especially in terms of online media and laws and regulations. Colleges and universities can carry out multi-party exchanges and communicate with young students face-to-face by going into student dormitories, laboratories and libraries to collect and understand the real situation of young students’ thought dynamics, life needs, and aspirations for growth and development, so as to promptly understand what young people are thinking about and guiding them well.

Setting the web agenda

Agenda setting is the process by which the news media directs what the audience sees and thinks by setting the topics. For different audiences, the world they are exposed to through media reports is different. With the advent of the Internet era, the passive state of the audience to receive information no longer exists, and all Internet users can become the active release of information and expression of opinions “media”. The theory of “spiral of silence” in communication science refers to the fact that in the process of communication, a minority of people will intentionally cater to the dominant opinions of the group in order to avoid being isolated. The existence of more and more such a minority of silent individuals will lead to the dominant voice to occupy all the public opinion field very quickly, and the comments forwarded or emphasized by the media or opinion leaders are often more likely to evolve into the dominant opinion recognized by the majority of the people, and this opinion can be shaped. Therefore, although the Internet is full of different voices, online opinion leaders can utilize the number of fans and influence they have accumulated to selectively release specific topics and express their opinions to the audience, so the ideological direction of young college students can be driven by the use of agenda-setting by opinion leaders to create public opinion hotspots and attract the audience’s attention.

Combined efforts to dominate mainstream ideology and discourse

Creating a cooperative community of “party and government, public opinion leaders, and university students and netizens” will help multiple subjects to consult and communicate, and collaborate in common governance, laying a solid foundation for online ideological security. Parties and government departments need to take the main responsibility of monitoring and supervising the development of the Internet, and forming positive online public opinion. Promote rational dialogue between the public and the government. At the same time, they should fully play their positive role in encouraging online opinion leaders to analyze government decisions and hot events positively and guide positive social opinions. Correctly view the subjective initiative of college students and give full play to their strengths, so as to build a positive and healthy online public opinion environment among young college students and promote the establishment of an online ideological security team. By relying on the party and government departments to strengthen network ideological security, and mobilizing the enthusiasm of network opinion leaders and college students, we can form a situation in which the party and government, opinion leaders and college students work together to modernize the network ideological security governance system and governance capacity, and firmly grasp the network ideological security governance system and governance capacity. Only by mobilizing the active participation of online opinion leaders and college students can we form a situation where “party and government, opinion leaders and college students” work together to build a modernized network ideological security governance system and governance capacity, and firmly grasp the dominant power of network ideological work.

Conclusion

By simulating the complex network public opinion evolution model and virus transmission model, this paper explores the relevant factors affecting the evolution of network public opinion, and designs the risk control strategy of college students’ network public opinion and the path of college students’ network security ideology construction.

Regardless of the value of the proportion of positive tendency p+ in the group, the ratio u+ of the number of published opinions with O=1 to the total number of opinions will tend to be stable, which indicates that public opinion always develops in a certain direction, i.e., converges to a certain state, in the process of information dissemination. At the same time, the smaller the absolute value |p+p|$$\left| {{p_ + } - {p_ - }} \right|$$ of the difference between positive and negative tendencies, and the closer u+ is to 0.5, the more controversial the topic is, and the more difficult it is for the group to reach a consensus.

The BA scale-free network is selected as the research network, and the larger the degree average k$$\left\langle k \right\rangle$$ of the network nodes is, the faster the information spreads, and the final spread will be wider. At the same time, the degree average k$$\left\langle k \right\rangle$$ of the network has a great influence on the individual’s motivation to speak. When k$$\left\langle k \right\rangle$$ is small, the flow of information is restricted, resulting in it being more difficult to generate extensive discussion, and the topic heat will dissipate more quickly. In addition, the initial discussion group also affects the results of opinion dissemination. When the degree of the initial discussion group node itself is high, the scope of information dissemination is substantially improved.

Due to the localized association structure, the relationship between nodes within the association is relatively close while the relationship between nodes between associations is relatively sparse, which leads to the existence of nodes with small degree but large k−core, and the degree fluctuates more when the k−core is large. The nodes with large degrees have larger weights, and when the weights of the nodes fluctuate within a small range, the fluctuation range of the degree is relatively small. By comparing the proposed five college students’ online public opinion risk control strategies, it can be seen that the control method based on group influence is better than the other four control strategies, and the control effect is more significant. On this basis, this paper proposes a framework to construct college students’ network security ideology.

Lingua:
Inglese
Frequenza di pubblicazione:
1 volte all'anno
Argomenti della rivista:
Scienze biologiche, Scienze della vita, altro, Matematica, Matematica applicata, Matematica generale, Fisica, Fisica, altro