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Application and Accuracy Improvement of Big Data Analytics in Market Demand Forecasting in Tourism Economy

Yonghe Yang

Yonghe Yang

Lijiang Normal UniversityLijiang, China
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Yang, Yonghe
  
21 mars 2025
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Publié en ligne: 21 mars 2025
Reçu: 09 nov. 2024
Accepté: 14 févr. 2025
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/amns-2025-0586
Mots clés
© 2025 Yonghe Yang, published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Figure 1.

Detailed framework of consumer travel consumption behavior
Detailed framework of consumer travel consumption behavior

Figure 2.

Cluster spectrum
Cluster spectrum

Figure 3.

The original data series of the tourist
The original data series of the tourist

Figure 4.

Sequence diagram of the logarithm of the tourist
Sequence diagram of the logarithm of the tourist

Figure 5.

Self-correlation and partial correlation data of time series ily
Self-correlation and partial correlation data of time series ily

Figure 6.

The self-correlation and partial correlation data of sily of the seasonal difference
The self-correlation and partial correlation data of sily of the seasonal difference

Figure 7.

Prediction of the number of tourists in Xiamen city
Prediction of the number of tourists in Xiamen city

Forecast results for the number of visitors from June to December 2019

Month Real value Predicted value
June 113.77 113.91
July 149.09 149.04
August 167.51 167.51
September 147.64 147.46
October 210.73 210.81
November 115.19 115.18
December 102.37 102.40

Model parameter estimation and relevant test results

Variable Coefficient Se. t p
AR(1) -0.51131 0.19472 -3.11772 0.01832
AR(2) -0.19991 0.21130 -1.71485 0.08535
MA(1) -0.47858 0.19733 -2.59064 0.01897
SAR(12) -0.20460 0.20054 -2.32730 0.04667
MA(12) 0.88047 0.09894 -9.10831 -0.00464
R2 0.87094 The mean of the dependent variable -0.01129
Adjusted R2 0.80094 The standard deviation of the dependent variable 0.08314
Regression standard error 0.01898 Red pool information (AIC) -3.63257
Residual sum of squares 0.01663 Schwarz information (SC) -3.37128
Logarithmic likelihood ratio 78.67004 D-W statistics 2.03874

Unit root test of sily sequence

Test result t p
Critical value -7.86162 0.000
-3.51473
-2.88265
-2.59831

Test results of each model

(p, q) Adjusted R2 AIC SC p-Q MAPE
(2,1) 0.83085 -3.24701 -3.29563 0.893 4.57
(2,0) 0.80135 -3.62486 -3.36381 0.736 6.01
(1,1) 0.80279 -3.36972 -3.13434 0.854 5.19
(1,0) 0.82164 -3.43296 -3.31292 0.892 4.95

The number of visitors to the tourist area in Fujian Province

Country 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Japan(1) 162902 202580 262992 223202 348256 422070
South Korea(2) 89334 121731 216002 202790 297193 454552
Malaysia(3) 40004 48655 99031 81375 151483 177845
United States(4) 65679 72984 90742 75071 129820 176730
Singapore(5) 32430 37698 69847 57267 99759 108600
Thailand(6) 20452 26852 48884 32991 67780 78972
German(7) 23737 27613 30073 27600 55078 71956
Italy(8) 15345 21770 25838 26992 44086 62361
France(9) 18096 22111 28512 22391 41139 55919
Indonesia(10) 14788 18034 22338 24002 37792 42593
Australia(11) 13068 16741 19630 20180 34600 45941
England(12) 14154 16336 20863 19936 30685 43617
Chinese Hongkong(13) 180728 221070 265659 289380 409393 451129
Chinese Taiwan(14) 271175 399666 524182 427180 533778 640391
Langue:
Anglais
Périodicité:
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Sujets de la revue:
Sciences de la vie, Sciences de la vie, autres, Mathématiques, Mathématiques appliquées, Mathématiques générales, Physique, Physique, autres
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