Numerical analysis of the impact of national macro-policies on the construction of key projects planned during the “First Five-Year Plan” period in Lanzhou City

Figure 1.

Figure 2.

Figure 3.

Figure 4.

Figure 5.

The bacon breaks down the result

	Weigh	2×2DDEstimate
Earlier Treatment vs. Later Comparison	0.031	-11.274
Later Treatment vs. Earlier Comparison	0.032	-5.867
Treatment vs. Nevertreated	0.927	-40.972

Test result

	Unmatched	Mean			%reduct	t-test		V(T)/ V(C)
Variable	Matched	Treated	Control	%bias	|bias|	t	p>|t|
tis2_1_w	U	44.943	45.549	9	78.3	2.43	0.009	0.96
	M	45.003	46.957	-1.9		-0.32	0.698	1.04
tis3_1_w	U	37.349	37.642	12.5	83.0	3.5	0.000	1.53*
	M	36.974	38.491	1.8		0.32	0.697	1.39*
Lnpop_z	U	2.5142	3.9627	28.2	88.4	7.56	0	1.71*
	M	2.4841	4.1891	1.1		0.46	0.6	1.89*
Lar_z	U	30.155	21.021	31.6	86.4	10.39	0	6.65*
	M	24.14	27.095	-2.8		-0.88	0.326	0.99
Vest_z	U	70.38	75.664	9-.1	35.1	-2.51	0.01	1.11
	M	71.897	75.852	-5.1		-1.2	0.197	1.14*
Gov_z	U	13.712	17.96	-22.3	90.0	-5.43	0	0.9
	M	13.867	15.8	-1.2		-0.33	0.689	1.18*
Fdi_z	U	1.1911	0.0606	-27.5	88.1	6.23	0.000	1.05
	M	1.2254	1.5642	-1.3		-0.42	0.541	0.78*
Edu_z	U	1.1645	1.5322	24.1	96.3	7.29	0.000	1.38*
	M	1.1472	1.8954	-0.2		-0.45	0.586	0.92
Tec_z	U	.19864	.19379	9.7	75.2	2.59	0.000	0.96
	M	.20847	.21268	2.2		0.42	0.592	0.95
Reta_z	U	32.505	35.863	-10.8	80.2	-3.05	0.002	1.45*
	M	32.607	34.076	1.5		0.31	0.667	1.48*
Save_z	U	68.679	74.2	-10.4	91.0	-2.92	0.003	1.43*
	M	68.793	70.26	0.9		0.09	0.832	1.58*
Fin_z	U	89.648	90.275	1.7	151.2	0.37	0.621	0.78*
	M	88.683	93.236	-3.2		-0.82	0.348	0.76*

Analysis of regional and urban heterogeneity

Variable	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)
	East	Middle	West	Lower city	High grade city
Policy	0.0062*	0.002	0.0209***	0.0072***	0.0014
	[0.0031]	[0.0022]	[0.0047]	[0.0013]	[0.0056]
GDP	-0.0247***	0.0608***	0.0626***	-0.0035	-0.018
	[0.008]	[0.0198]	[0.0228]	[0.0088]	[0.0105]
Foreign	-0.2105***	-0.0664***	0.0256	-0.0719***	-0.2013***
	[0.0234]	[0.0178]	[0.0297]	[0.0124]	[0.0557]
In-export	-0.1115***	-0.0995***	-0.0937***	-0.0973***	-0.1125***
	[0.0061]	[0.0052]	[0.0068]	[0.0029]	[0.0144]
Threetwo	-0.0307	-0.188***	-0.0968***	-0.0855***	-0.2502*
	[0.0427]	[0.0273]	[0.0334]	[0.0175]	[0.1363]
Income	-0.0014	-0.2694***	0.0668	-0.0341	0.2685***
	[0.0459]	[0.0819]	[0.2033]	[0.0399]	[0.0914]
Tech	-0.0465***	-0.0043*	-0.0035	-0.0142***	-0.0155*
	[0.0046]	[0.0029]	[0.0085]	[0.0026]	[0.0086]
Time fixed effect	control	control	control	control	control
Urban fixation effect	control	control	control	control	control
_cons	0.9406	0.8285	0.8074	0.8461	0.8598
	0.014	0.0097	0.0165	0.0064	0.0345
Sample size	1477	1452	600	3256	413
R-squared	0.4628	0.4014	0.3921	0.392	0.6234
F value	69.3573	47.1241	20.131	101.2152	32.6532

PSM-DIDreturned results

VARIABLES	(1)	(2)
	Gdp_rate	Gdp_rate
DID	The regression results of the full sample covariable match	The regression results of the full sample covariable match
	0.337*	0.596***
	(0.225)	(0.178)
Control variable	control	control
Openness	control	control
Employment level	control	control
Constant	-35.76***	-28.68***
	(10.24)	(6.745)
Observations	1,685	3,379
R-squared	0.643	0.638

Model index variable

Variable name	Variable meaning
Policy	National macro policy
Time15	The development of Lanzhou development stage "one five" period
Time2010	Lanzhou key project construction time node
GDP	Economic growth level
K	Capital stock
Foreign	Openness level (investment degree of foreign companies)
Communication	Communication level
Tech	Technical level
Human	Population level
In-export	Foreign trade
Graduate	Education level
Threetwo	Industrial structure
Income	Disposable income
Jobhuman	Employment level

Balance test results

Sample	Ps R2	LR chi2	p>chi2	MeanBias	MedBias	B	R	%Var
Unmatched	0.051	182.24	0.000	16.5	12.8	53.4*	2.08*	56
Matched	0.003	8.54	0.584	2.5	2.3	15.8	0.42	65

Analysis of the heterogeneity of urban development

Variable	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
	Low construction	High construction	Low population density	Population density	Low economic level	Economic level
Policy	0.009***	0.0029	0.0118***	0.0039*	0.0058*	0.0072***
	[0.0027]	[0.0015]	[0.0026]	[0.0017]	[0.0025]	[0.0019]
GDP	-0.0038	-0.0092	0.0388***	-0.0284***	0.0481*	-0.0108
	[0.0131]	[0.0067]	[0.0143]	[0.0069]	[0.0251]	[0.0066]
Foreign	-0.084***	-0.0621***	-0.071***	-0.1179***	-0.0482***	-0.1449***
	[0.019]	[0.0155]	[0.0172]	[0.0179]	[0.0168]	[0.0206]
In-export	-0.0966***	-0.1018***	-0.0884***	-0.1381***	-0.0985****	-0.1089***
	[0.0043]	[0.0044]	[0.004]	[0.0055]	[0.0039]	[0.0054]
Threetwo	-0.0137	-0.1234***	-0.1043***	-0.0505	-0.0975***	-0.0865**
	[0.0264]	[0.0285]	[0.0218]	[0.0373]	[0.0865]	[0.0424]
Income	-0.0616	0.0528	-0.0274	0.0966**	-0.1564**	0.0865*
	[0.0575]	[0.044]	[0.0583]	[0.0467]	[0.0865]	[0.0455]
Tech	-0.0424***	-0.005**	-0.0085***	-0.0308***	-0.0865**	-0.0281***
	[0.0062]	[0.0013]	[0.0022]	[0.0039]	[0.0865]	[0.0037]
Time fixed effect	control	control	control	control	control	control
Urban fixation effect	control	control	control	control	control	control
_cons	0.898***	0.7896***	0.8477***	0.8697***	0.8372***	0.8796***
	[0.0101]	[0.0073]	[0.0078]	[0.0094]	[0.007]	[0.0119]
Sample size	1789	1544	1667	1854	1723	1896
R-squared	0.3729	0.5511	0.394	0.5022	0.3976	0.4758
F value	52.1331	102.5641	55.7751	86.653	56.7511	76.7855

Descriptive statistics

Variable	Observed value	Mean value	Variance	Minimum value	Maximum value
Policy	945	0.21369	0.01614	0	1
Time15	945	0.745011	0.51594	0	1
Time2010	945	0.660534	0.54861	0	1
GDP	945	9946.462	14544.647	26.08215	106731.4
K	945	26211.96	41448.571	37	250054.2
Foreign	945	10419.149	19114.61	1	175432
Communication	945	60256.21	38832.133	0	207999
Tech	945	149.2465	498.2587	0	6316.07
Human	945	3897.441	7.41308	0.32	39.58
In-export	945	4157.134	2694.932	221	12600
Graduate	945	12.68523	6.44324	2.33473	45.54352
Threetwo	945	13.504	6.09735	3.89038	48.0302
Income	945	11.3643	5.59307	1152	52.72563
Jobhuman	945	384.6	336.583	11.46	76436

The impact estimation of key project construction in national macro policy

Variable	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
Policy	-45.576**	-45.142***	-45.063***	-45.123***	-45.032***	-47.675
	(14.767)	(14.656)	(14.555)	(13.489)	(14.232)	(14.365)
GDP		-0.00007	-0.0000777	-0.0000745	-0.000145	-0.000198
		(0.00032)	(0.00031)	(0.0003212)	(0.000317)	(0.000338)
Income			-5.767	-5.045	26.231	16.343
			(95.386)	(95.563)	(95.674)	(98.451)
Communication				262.214	-229.563	-286.132
				(1248.341)	(1237.021)	(1256.734)
Jobhuman					-2.874	2.654
					(0.756)	(0.724)
In-export						0.0000128**
						(6.28e-06)
Constant term	223.032***	224.545***	229.081***	228.653***	78.675	84.232
	(6.423)	(10.154)	(35.245)	(36.045)	(52.654)	(52.572)
Control variable	NO	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES
Urban fixation effect	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES
Time fixed effect	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES
R2	0.267	0.267	0.268	0.270	0.279	0.284