Research on Industrial Economic Innovation Development Strategy Based on Ordered Logit Modeling

Goodness of fit test statistics of multinomial Logit and ordered Logit

Model	Test statistic	Model regression(N=20)
		A-1	A-2	A-3	A-4	A-5
Multinomial Logit	Log likelihood	-3060.918	-3060.951	-3061.478	-3063.398	-3065.066
	McFadden’s R2	0.126	0.064	0.100	0.068	0.060
	AIC	6173.791	6171.873	6170.879	6170.759	6172.084
	BIC	6331.527	6323.608	6316.502	6304.205	6299.503
Ordered Logit	Log likelihood	-3023.209	-3025.392	-3025.508	-3027.422
	Pseudo R2	0.065	0.097	0.122	0.091
	AIC	6146.486	6146.759	6142.931	6142.883
	BIC	6449.841	6438.002	6422.006	6409.790

Model variables and related features

Primary variable	Secondary variable	Variable meaning
Economic development level (Dollar)	GDP	<500billion=1, 500~999billion=2, 1000~2999 billion=3, 3000~9999billion=4, ≥10000billion=5
	Per capita GDP(PCGDP)	<1000=1, 1000~2999=2, 3000~9999=3, 10000~29999=4, ≥30000=5
Level of urbanization	Urban population(UR)	<30%=1, 30%~49%=2, 50%~69%=3, 70%~84%=4, ≥85%=5
	Town land use ratio(TLUR)	<20%=1, 20%~39%=2, 40%~59%=3, 60%~79%=4, ≥80%=5
Living standard (Dollar)	Per capita disposable income(PCDI)	<3000=1, 3000~5999=2, 6000~14999=3, 15000~29999=4, ≥30000=5
	Cost of living index(CLI)	<50=1, 50~74=2, 75~99=3, 100~149=4, ≥150=5
Labor force	Personnel in the industry economy(PIE)	<20%=1, 20%~39%=2, 40%~59%=3, 60%~79%=4, ≥80%=5
	Proportion of college graduates(PCG)	<1%=1, 1%~2.9%=2, 3%~5.9%=3, 6%~9.9%=4, ≥10%=5
Government action	Total government expenditure(TGE)	<100 billion=1, 100 ~499 billion =2, 500~1999billion =3, 2000 ~9999 billion =4, ≥10000billiono=5
	Government efficiency(GE)	Extremely slow=1, slow=2, average=3, high=4, extremely high=5

Ordered logit regression of the development degree of industrial innovation

Variable		Model 1	Model 2	Model 3	Model 4	Model 5
Economic development level	GDP	0.525**(0.05)
	PCGDP	0.766***(0.008)
Level of urbanization	UR		0.741**(0.033)
	TLUR		0.334(0.26)
Living standard	PCDI			0.706***(0.076)
	CLI			0.34(0.29)
Labor force	PIE				0.55(0.145)
	PCG				0.919**(0.082)
Government action	TGE					1.355***(0.000)
	GE					1.254***(0.002)

The correlation description of each variable

	GDP	PCGDP	UR	TLUR	PCDI	CLI	PIE	PCG	TGE	GE
GDP	1.00
PCGDP	0.18	1.00
UR	0.74	0.15	1.00
TLUR	0.63	0.13	0.58	1.00
PCDI	0.28	-0.38	0.08	0.24	1.00
CLI	0.56	0.37	0.58	0.43	-0.18	1.00
PIE	-0.66	0.18	0.79	0.56	-0.14	0.72	1.00
PCG	0.76	0.35	0.77	0.67	-0.21	0.52	0.55	1.00
TGE	0.71	0.01	0.57	0.49	0.03	0.47	0.46	0.71	1.00
GE	0.58	-0.04	0.62	0.48	0.33	0.36	0.36	-0.06	-0.14	1.00

Ordered logit regression of the development level of industrial innovation

Variable		Model 1	Model 2	Model 3	Model 4	Model 5
Economic development level	GDP	0.582**(0.027)
	PCGDP	1.738***(0.000)
Level of urbanization	UR		0.793**(0.038)
	TLUR		0.353(0.212)
Living standard	PCDI			0.724**(0.027)
	CLI			-0.131(0.822)
Labor force	PIE				0.453(0.31)
	PCG				0.731**(0.013)
Government action	TGE					0.925**(0.023)
	GE					1.284**(0.008)

Descriptive statistics of basic variables

Variable	N	Mean	SD	Min	Max
GDP	20	3.64	1.09	1	5
PCGDP	20	2.06	0.39	1	5
UR	20	2.24	0.94	1	5
TLUR	20	2.72	0.89	1	5
PCDI	20	2.78	1.09	1	5
CLI	20	2.28	0.07	1	5
PIE	20	3.33	0.58	1	5
PCG	20	4.06	1.02	1	5
TGE	20	1.13	1.14	1	5
GE	20	1.37	0.57	1	5

The regression parameter statistics of ordered logit model

Variable	Parametric estimation	SD	z	p
GDP	0.429	0.267	3.088	0.00
PCGDP	0.433	0.090	-4.248	0.00
UR	0.247	0.107	-2.730	0.009
TLUR	0.242	0.087	-1.519	0.115
PCDI	0.701	0.228	-3.165	0.00
CLI	0.154	0.106	1.448	0.137
PIE	0.460	0.113	1.797	0.116
PCG	0.703	0.166	-4.583	0.027
TGE	0.285	0.097	-2.889	0.005
GE	0.398	0.155	4.049	0.00
_Cons	1.821	0.138