ARIMA model analyzes the tendency and challenges of intelligent marketing in the era of digitalization
Sep 24, 2025
About this article
Published Online: Sep 24, 2025
Received: Dec 28, 2024
Accepted: Apr 17, 2025
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/amns-2025-0984
Keywords
© 2025 Lingji Wang, published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
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The optimal weight of the combination prediction model
| Set | Expectation | Forecast Accuracy | Weighted moving average | Once the index is smooth | Secondary index smoothing | Three times the index smoothness | ARIMA | Combination prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Test set | 6 | MAE | 256 | 397 | 251 | 204 | 224 | 298 |
| Test set | 6 | MSE | 45767 | 178937 | 79004 | 75232 | 178236 | 122365 |
| Test set | 6 | MAPE | 32% | 52% | 37.5% | 35.1% | 37.7% | 21.4% |
| Weight | 12.32% | 20.41% | 22.07% | 0.0% | 45.2% | 100.0% |