Open Access

Exploring the integration path of ideological and political education and quantitative analysis in financial risk management

Xiaolong Li

Xiaolong Li

Organization Department, Guangxi Science & Technology Normal UniversityLaibin, China
Search for this author on
Sciendo|Google Scholar
Li, Xiaolong
 and 
Ying Deng

Ying Deng

College of Finance and Economics, Guangxi Science & Technology Normal UniversityLaibin, China
Search for this author on
Sciendo|Google Scholar
Deng, Ying
  
Mar 21, 2025
Exploring the integration path of ideological and political education and quantitative analysis in financial risk management's Cover Image
About this article
Previous Article
Next Article
Cite
Download Cover
Published Online: Mar 21, 2025
Received: Oct 16, 2024
Accepted: Feb 12, 2025
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/amns-2025-0673
Keywords
© 2025 Xiaolong Li et al., published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Figure 1.

Financial risk management system
Financial risk management system

Figure 2.

Stock price index day return rate
Stock price index day return rate

Figure 3.

Stock price index QQ map
Stock price index QQ map

Figure 4.

Financial risk comparison
Financial risk comparison

ADF test of yield sequence

Lags SH180 Shenzhen
1 -9.411(<0.001) -9.529(<0.001)
2 -9.008(<0.001) -9.655(<0.001)
3 -9.211(<0.001) -9.942(<0.001)
4 -9.305(<0.001) -9.789(<0.001)
5 -9.007(<0.001) -9.889(<0.001)
6 -9.141(<0.001) -9.840(<0.001)
7 -9.126(<0.001) -9.763(<0.001)
8 -9.365(<0.001) -9.781(<0.001)
9 -9.325(<0.001) -9.588(<0.001)
10 -9.369(<0.001) -9.739(<0.001)
11 -9.401(<0.001) -9.920(<0.001)
12 -9.045(<0.001) -9.877(<0.001)
13 -9.337(<0.001) -9.685(<0.001)
14 -9.292(<0.001) -9.553(<0.001)
15 -9.240(<0.001) -9.541(<0.001)
16 -9.478(<0.001) -9.927(<0.001)
17 -9.26(<0.001) -9.567(<0.001)
18 -9.079(<0.001) -9.529(<0.001)
19 -9.017(<0.001) -9.622(<0.001)
20 -9.358(<0.001) -9.511(<0.001)

Kupiec test results for various stock index

Index and model E T Er Tr LR χ25%(1)
SH180GARCH-VaR 180 192 5% 5.36% 0.017 3.732
SH180MA-GARCH-VaR 180 137 5% 3.82% 0.284 3.732
SH180ARMA-GARCH-VaR 180 194 5% 5.41% 0.018 3.732
ShenzhenGARCH-VaR 180 173 5% 4.83% 0.298 3.732
ShenzhenMA-GARCH-VaR 180 162 5% 4.52% 0.537 3.732
ShenzhenARMA-GARCH-VaR 180 171 5% 4.77% 0.089 3.732

Index statistical analysis (Trillion %)

Selected object Reference index Mean Max Min
Banking organization Non-performing loan balance(X1) 3.68 8.29 1.82
Non-performing loan ratio(X2) 1.36 2.78 0.43
Small loan company Non-performing loan balance(X3) 1.89 2.46 1.09
Non-performing loan ratio(X4) 58.03 76.93 50.87
Guarantee company Compensatory quantity(X5) 363 584 186
Compensation amount(X6) 0.68 1.03 0.29
Farmers’ mutual aid society Overdue amount(X7) 0.07 0.15 0.03
Enterprise Risk quantity(X8) 11 19 5
Amount involved(X9) 4.12 6.86 1.92
Private financing Number of cases(X10) 16 38 3
Case amount(X11) 5.29 12.83 1.67
Real estate Deposit ratio(X12) 16.83 22.54 14.91
Government finance Notch rate(X13) 41.22 53.49 30.05
Debt ratio(X14) 59.63 86.78 38.41

Basic statistics of daily returns for two indices

SH180 Shenzhen
Mean 0.2846 0.0348
Std 1.8359 1.3574
Min -5.8956 -4.7852
Max 5.9483 4.9543
Skewness -0.3649 0.0586
Excess Kurtosis 0.9852 6.3847
Jarque Bera 1598.4873 8129.9035
P-value <2.3e-18 <2.3e-18

ARCH-LM test of yield series

ARCH-LM SH180 Shenzhen
1 198.631(<2.3e-18) 665.099(<2.3e-18)
2 198.981(<2.3e-18) 664.345(<2.3e-18)
3 189.063(<2.3e-18) 680.327(<2.3e-18)
4 197.476(<2.3e-18) 666.001(<2.3e-18)
5 186.311(<2.3e-18) 665.704(<2.3e-18)
6 181.904(<2.3e-18) 676.155(<2.3e-18)
7 197.224(<2.3e-18) 668.832(<2.3e-18)
8 190.624(<2.3e-18) 683.513(<2.3e-18)
9 178.073(<2.3e-18) 675.633(<2.3e-18)
10 195.854(<2.3e-18) 683.333(<2.3e-18)
11 187.703(<2.3e-18) 681.439(<2.3e-18)
12 188.342(<2.3e-18) 678.003(<2.3e-18)
13 186.013(<2.3e-18) 674.255(<2.3e-18)
14 198.126(<2.3e-18) 675.393(<2.3e-18)
15 191.694(<2.3e-18) 679.701(<2.3e-18)
16 184.751(<2.3e-18) 678.973(<2.3e-18)
17 177.697(<2.3e-18) 682.884(<2.3e-18)
18 193.612(<2.3e-18) 665.907(<2.3e-18)
19 186.970(<2.3e-18) 682.650(<2.3e-18)
20 197.843(<2.3e-18) 678.493(<2.3e-18)

Descriptive statistics of VaR for various stock index

Index and model Mean Max Min Std
SH180GARCH-VaR 0.287 0.046 0.016 0.008
SH180MA-GARCH-VaR 0.253 0.042 0.014 0.006
SH180ARMA-GARCH-VaR 0.231 0.044 0.011 0.006
ShenzhenGARCH-VaR 0.015 0.042 0.010 0.009
ShenzhenMA-GARCH-VaR 0.017 0.041 0.010 0.011
ShenzhenARMA-GARCH-VaR 0.020 0.043 0.011 0.012
Language:
English
Publication timeframe:
1 times per year
Journal Subjects:
Life Sciences, Life Sciences, other, Mathematics, Applied Mathematics, General Mathematics, Physics, Physics, other
Journal RSS Feed