Open Access

Research on the impact analysis and control strategy of load fluctuation in distribution banding operation based on segmented linearization method

, , , ,  and   
Mar 19, 2025

Cite
Download Cover

Figure 1.

Daily load curve
Daily load curve

Figure 2.

Week load curve
Week load curve

Figure 3.

Year load curve
Year load curve

Figure 4.

Holiday load curve
Holiday load curve

Figure 5.

Piecewise linear regression analysis process
Piecewise linear regression analysis process

Figure 6.

CART regression tree construction process
CART regression tree construction process

Figure 7.

ARE probability distribution of different Dr Events
ARE probability distribution of different Dr Events

Figure 8.

Annual daily load fluctuation
Annual daily load fluctuation

ANOVA analyzes the p values of different influencing factors

Influencing factor Prof>F
Maximum temperature 1.63087.5*1023
Minimum temperature 2.59187*1028
Mean temperature 9.00492*1029
Relative humidity (average) 0.1589
Rainfall amount 0.4738

Combined results of different load volatility models

N Fitting result R2 Remark
1 Distribution load=0.341*WT-3.164 0.9687 High temperature fitting: general
(WT<26.4°C)
Distribution load=1.028*WT-21.508 0.8625
(WT>26.4°C)
2 Distribution load=0.092*AH-1.572 0.9742 High temperature fitting: general
(AH<86kJ/kg)
Distribution load=0.238*AH-12.278 0.8635
(AH>86kJ/kg)
3 Distribution load=0.339*DT+0.0644*RH-8.89 0.9764 The fitting is better
(WT<26.4°C)
Distribution load=0.842*DT+0.173*RH-33.346 0.9534
(WT>26.4°C)
4 Distribution load=0.325*DT+0.328*WT-4.295 0.9795 The fitting is better
(WT<26.4°C)
Distribution load=0.095*DT+0.922*WT-22.371 0.9186
(WT>26.4°C)

ANOVA analyzes the highest temperature - load

SS df MS F Prof>F
Regression analysis 4.0915*108 187 2223209.7 4.85 1.63087.5*10-29
Residual error 8.61294*107 183 475859.6
Total 4.967*108 372
Language:
English